AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 21, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading slightly higher, but inside Thursday’s and Wednesday’s range. This suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Demand for higher-yielding assets and a weaker U.S. Dollar are helping to underpin the Aussie. Helping to put a cap on the market is the dovish outlook for the economy from the Reserve Bank of Australia as referenced in the minutes earlier in the week.

Oversold conditions and improving risk appetite could support the market throughout the session. Later on Friday, traders will get the opportunity to react to a speech from FOMC Member Neel Kashkari, U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Flash Services PMI and Existing Home Sales.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through .7610. A move through .7473 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The AUD/USD is also being tied up by a pair of Fibonacci levels at .7525 and .7541.

On the downside, major 50% support comes in at .7468 and .7454. On the upside, major retracement level resistance comes in at .7576, .7600 and .7611. These levels are helping to hold the market in a range.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7529 and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a price cluster at .7525 and .7530.

Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over .7530. This could fuel a rally into the next resistance cluster at .7541 and .7543.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is .7543. Overtaking this level with conviction could drive the Aussie into .7570 then .7576.

A sustained move under .7525 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the next uptrending angle at .7508. If this price fails then look for a break into the next uptrending angle at .7497. This is the last potential support angle before the .7473 main bottom.

Look for an upside bias over .7530 and a downside bias under .7525.