AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 30, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD soared early in the session, buoyed by weak U.S. economic data, but by the end of the session, the Forex pair traded lower after the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement offered no major surprises.

The spike above 80 cents was fueled by generalized weakness in the U.S. Dollar after the U.S. released a weak Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The report showed that the U.S. economy slowed to just a 0.2 percent annual growth pace in the first quarter.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released a statement that didn’t offer much change from the March statement. The Fed said that it still expects to begin a slow series of rate hikes, though not in June as many traders and analysts had expected.

The focus for AUD/USD traders will now shift to the May 5^th Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting. A little more than 50% of the traders believe the central bank will refrain from a rate cut due to rising iron ore prices, better-than-expected consumer inflation and stronger-than-expected labor market.

Technically, the main trend is up on the daily chart, but upside momentum may be slowing based on the potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern will be confirmed by a break through .7975. It typically leads to a 2 to 3 day break with the next downside target the short-term retracement zone at .7878 to .7832.

The first uptrending Gann angle support comes in at .7962. Taking out this angle will be the next sign of weakness. The next target is a major 50% level at .7913. Crossing to the weak side of this level will trigger a break into the primary downside target at .7878 to .7832.

On the upside, the first resistance is a major Fibonacci level at .8003, followed by a steep uptrending angle at .8034. Taking out .8075 will negate the reversal chart pattern with .8107 the next likely target.

The tone of the market today will be determined by trader reaction to .7975.