AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 1, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia released its decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Its rate statement indicated that interest rates would remain unchanged for a long time. The RBA also attempted to talk down the currency by mentioning it potential damaging effects on the economy.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but last Thursday’s closing price reversal top suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through .8065 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. This may generate the upside momentum needed to challenge the resistance cluster at .8162 to .8165.

A trade through .7936 will change the minor trend to down. A move through .7874 will change the main trend to down.

The price action is being controlled by a series of 50% levels at .8000, .7969 and .7925. A Fibonacci level comes in at .7893.

Taking out the Fib level at .7893 and the main bottom at .7874 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target zone .7818 to .7760.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7974 and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .8000.

A sustained move over .8000 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into .8065.

A sustained move under .8000 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential targets at .7969, .7931, .7925 and .7893.

Once sellers work through these level then start watching for an acceleration to the downside. The trigger point for a steep break is .7874.