AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading relatively flat after a volatile week. Easing worries about China’s currency devaluations are helping to underpin the market while falling commodity prices have put a lid on any rallies.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7439 will turn the main trend to up.

Based on Thursday’s close at .7358, minor resistance angles come in at .7379 and .7409. An angle from the July 1 top drops in at .7417 and an angle from the June 18 top comes in at .7438. These last two angles are most important to the structure of the market because they have been guiding the market lower for over a month.

One main range is .7737 to .7215. If there is a breakout to the upside then momentum may take the Aussie into its 50% level at .7485. The next target is an even longer downtrending angle at .7503. This is followed by a Fibonacci level at .7544.

The short-term range is .7439 to .7215. Its 50% or pivot level is .7327. This angle is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Continuing to hold above this level will signal the presence of buyers.

Crossing to the weak side of .7327 will indicate that sellers have gained control. The next potential targets under this pivot are uptrending angles at .7295, .7255 and .7235. The latter is the last major angle before the main bottom at .7215.

Watch the price action and read the order flow if .7327 is tested. This will tell us if buyers are coming in to support the market. A sustained move over .7379 will also indicate the presence of buyers. Any rally is likely to be limited unless the downtrending angle at .7438 is taken out with conviction.