Silver (XAG) Forecast: Eyeing a Multi-Year High as Tariffs and Fed Minutes Loom

Tariff Deadline: Will Trade Tensions Ignite Silver’s Next Leg Higher?

Silver traders face a pivotal week as President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline approaches, with markets bracing for potential trade disruptions that could send industrial metals sharply higher.

Trump’s threats of 10% to 50% tariffs on key trading partners, paired with recent 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports, have already spurred hedging across commodities.

For silver, with its deep industrial ties to electronics and solar, any broad tariff implementation could trigger inventory stockpiling, amplifying physical demand and sparking a rally.

Silver’s lower price point relative to gold makes it an accessible hedge during trade policy uncertainty, while its industrial demand may accelerate if manufacturers rush to secure supply ahead of potential disruptions.

Federal Reserve Minutes: Will Dovish Hints Spark a Breakout?

Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes will test markets currently pricing a 91.5% chance of a September rate cut, with Goldman Sachs revising expectations toward three cuts this year. If minutes reinforce policymakers’ concerns over labor and growth, traders should expect lower yields and a weaker dollar, creating a supportive backdrop for silver’s rally.

President Trump’s vocal preference for rates closer to 1% and his pressure on the Fed to ease add to the probability of accommodative signals. For silver, lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while dollar weakness historically amplifies foreign demand, especially as the euro and yen gain ground.

Dollar Weakness: Can the Greenback’s Slide Fuel Silver Demand?

Last week’s dollar drop—0.64% against the yen and 0.33% against the Swiss franc—pushed the greenback to its lowest levels since early 2022. A weaker dollar typically benefits silver by making it more attractive to international buyers, reinforcing both investment and industrial demand as trade uncertainties mount.

The combination of tariff risk and dovish Fed signals could accelerate this weakness, setting up silver for extended upside should dollar declines deepen.

Fiscal Spending Tailwind Supports Silver

Progress on a $3.9 trillion spending bill, adding $3.3 trillion in debt while extending 2017 tax cuts, underpins the case for precious metals. Silver stands to benefit both as a fiscal hedge and from increased industrial demand tied to renewable energy infrastructure, aligning with its dual role in the current environment.

Silver Market Forecast

Silver’s recent break above $36.30 and retest of $36.84 show buyers are in control as it eyes the $37.32 multi-year high. If Trump’s tariffs hit and Fed minutes confirm dovish leanings, silver could test new multi-year highs on strong investment flows and industrial hedging.

Conversely, any moderation in tariffs or hawkish Fed surprises could lead to pullbacks, likely viewed as buying opportunities within a structurally bullish market.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.