AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 17 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading relatively flat after posting several wild swings last week. Volume is light and the market is range bound ahead of tomorrow’s release of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes. Traders expect the minutes to say the RBA is comfortable with current price levels and my not have to slash rates any further during this cycle.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through the last swing top at .7439.

The main range is .7737 to .7215. Its retracement zone at .7485 to .7544 is the primary upside target. A downtrending angle at .7493 passes through this zone, making it a valid upside target also.

 The short-term range is .7439 to .7215. Its 50% level or pivot at .7327 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Holding above this level will give the market an upside bias.

The Forex pair is currently testing a downtrending angle at .7359. An uptrending angle comes in at .7335.

On the upside, the main targets are a series of downtrending angles at .7399. .7407 and .7428.

The current price action suggests trader indecision. Some traders may be bearish because of the possibility of another devaluation by the People’s Bank of China. Some also feel the RBA may have to lower interest rates so that its exporters can remain competitive with China. Others feel there is still room to the upside because the Fed may have to refrain from a September rate hike.

Holding above .7327 will give the AUD/USD an upside bias. Holding above .7335 will signal the presence of buyers and holding above .7359 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Don’t expect a strong upside breakout, however, unless .7439 is taken out with conviction.

A failure to hold .7327 could trigger a steep sell-off into at least .7275.