AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 7, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading slightly higher, but in a tight range shortly ahead of today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Traders expect the report to show the economy added 222K new jobs in July.  

A number substantially above 222K will be bearish for the Australian Dollar. A number substantially below 222K will be bullish for the Aussie.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum may be shifting to the upside because of the closing price reversal bottom from earlier in the week, however, the main trend won’t turn up until .7495 is taken out.

The short-term range is .7233 to .7428. Its 50% level or pivot is .7330. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market. A trade below it will give the market a downside bias with the first target an uptrending angle at .7283. This is followed by another angle at .7258. This is the last support angle before the .7233 main bottom.

A trade through .7233 will reaffirm the downtrend and could trigger a move into angles at .7197 and .7128.

Holding above the pivot at .7330 will give the market an upside bias. A sustained move over the uptrending angle at .7333 will signal the presence of buyers.

The intermediate range is .7495 to .7233. Its retracement zone at .7364 to .7395 is currently being tested. Taking out .7395 with conviction sets up a possible rally into downtrending angles at .7467 and .7488.

The main range is .7737 to .7233. Its retracement zone at .7485 to .7544 is the primary upside target.

Based on the current price at .7372, the direction of the market into the jobs report will be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at .7364. The direction of the market for the entire session will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .7330.

Watch and read the order flow and price action at .7330 and .7364 today. This will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. Look for increased volatility at 8:30 a.m. ET.