AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – December 22, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading slightly higher on low volume as investors position themselves ahead of today’s release of the U.S. Final Third Quarter GDP report at 8:30 a.m. ET and the U.S. Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET.   U.S. Final GDP is expected to show an increase of 1.9%. Existing Home Sales are expected to show an increase of 5.32 million units. Because of the holiday trade, the Forex pair is not expected to move very much unless the actual report numbers miss the estimates substantially.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The main trend is .7015 to .7384. Its retracement zone is .71995 to .7156. The Forex pair is currently trading inside this zone.

The short-term range is .7282 to .7096. Its retracement zone is .7189 to .7211. The AUD/USD is also trading inside this zone.

Based on Monday’s close at .71875, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7189.

A sustained move over .7189 will signal the presence of buyers. The next upside target is the main 50% level at .71995. This is followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at .7211.

The Fib level at .7211 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target a downtrending angle at .7232. This is followed by another downtrending angle at .7257.

A sustained move under .7189 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at .7182 will put the AUD/USD in a bearish position with the next target a long-term uptrending angle at .7165. Taking out this angle will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next target the major Fib level at .7156.

The Fib level at .7156 is a trigger point for a huge sell-off with potential targets at .7096 and .6940.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7189. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.