AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 17, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading lower and inside Friday’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. There was no follow-through to the upside following Friday’s disappointing U.S. consumer inflation and retail sales reports. Buyers also didn’t show up after China released a better-than-expected report on second-quarter GDP.

The price action suggests investors may already be paring positions ahead of Tuesday’s minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July monetary policy meeting.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7833 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Today is the eighth day up from the last bottom at .7571 which puts the AUD/USD in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Additional resistance is the April 21, 2016 main top at .7834. This price is also a trigger point for an upside breakout.

On the downside, the nearest support is the former top at .7777. A test of this level could attract new buyers since old tops often become new bottoms during strong uptrends.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7810 and the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster formed by yesterday’s high at .7833 and the April 2016 top at .7834.

Three things can happen today. Firstly, the buying could be strong enough to sustain a move through .7834. Secondly, enough sellers could come in to stop the rally. Thirdly, buyers could take out .7833 then close lower for the session. This will form a closing price reversal top.

If enough buyers come in to take out .7834 then the next upside objective is the steep uptrending angle at .7891. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will put the Forex pair in an extremely bullish position.

If sellers continue to come in today then the first objective is .7777. This is followed by an uptrending angle at .7731. Since the main trend is up, buyers may show up on a test of this angle.