AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 15, 2015 Forecast

Weekly Analysis

The AUD/USD posted an inside-range, higher-close on the weekly chart. The main trend is still up on the weekly chart despite the loss of upside momentum since the top at .8162 the week-ending May 15. The price action suggests a successful defense of the two lows at .7598 and .7532. Besides the two lows, additional support is a pair of uptrending angles at .7642 and .7587. A downtrending angle drops in at .7595.

The key area to watch this week is a pair of angles at .7752 and .7762. Overtaking this area will signal the presence of buyers. If upside momentum increases on the move then look for an extension of the rally. The primary upside target this week is a pair of angles at .7962 to .7972.

A failure to overcome .7752 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is .7642, followed by .7587. This angle is the trigger point for a breakdown into the low for the year at .7532.

Daily Analysis

The main trend is down on the daily chart. The main range is .7597 to .7818. Its pivot price is .7708. This 50% level is controlling the short-term direction of the market. The main trend will turn up on a trade through the main top at .7818. A trade through .7598 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A sustained move under the main bottom at .7597 could trigger an acceleration into .7551 and .7532.

Based on the close at .7728, the first potential support is the pivot at .7708. This is followed by an uptrending angle at .7697. A trade through this angle could trigger an acceleration into the next angle at .7647. This is followed by another angle at .7622. This is the last potential support angle before the main bottoms at .7598 and .7597.

Holding the pivot at .7708 will signal the presence of buyers. The first angle to overcome is a downtrending angle at .7722. Overtaking this angle could create enough upside momentum to challenge an uptrending angle at .7797. Overcoming and sustaining the move over this angle could trigger a breakout over the main top at .7818. A trade through this top will change the main trend to up on the daily swing chart.

The main range is .8162 to .7597. If buyers can hold the double-bottom at .7597 and .7598 then the retracement zone at .7979 to .7946 becomes the primary upside target.

Fundamentally, Tuesday’s RBA minutes, Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy announcement and Thursday’s U.S. consumer inflation data are the major reports this week.