AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 22, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is drifting lower on Thursday, still pressured by last week’s somewhat dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia and this week’s steep drop in crude oil which has raised concerned over the future direction of other key commodities markets.

Helping to slow down the pace of the selling is the drop in U.S. Treasury yields. They have helped make the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable investment.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, it’s been six days since the AUD/USD posted its high for the month at .7635. This is an indication that momentum is getting ready to shift to the downside.

The market is currently straddling a number of long-term retracement levels at .7553, .7545 and .7539.

If support forms at these levels then look for a rally back into a pair of Fib levels at .7589 and .7606. These are the last two potential resistance levels before the .7635 main top.

The short-term range is .7372 to .7635. If the selling pressure continues then look for a move into its retracement zone at .7504 to .7472.

 Forecast

Based on the current price at .7542, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7539.

Holding above .7539 could lead to a labored rally with targets at .7545 and .7553. Overcoming .7553 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with .7589 the next likely target.

Taking out .7539 late in the session could drive the AUD/USD into the next uptrending angle at .7512. This is followed by the 50% level at .7504.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7553 and .7539 into the close. Look for an upside bias late in the day on a sustained move over .7553 and a downside bias on a sustained move under .7539.