AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 25, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD tried to rally early in the session on Wednesday, but worries about Greece drove down demand for higher yielding assets, leading to a lower close. Concerns were raised after Greek debt talks hit a stalemate again, with Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras criticizing the International Monetary Fund for rejecting Greek reform proposals ahead of talks in Brussels.

There are no major reports out of Australia on Thursday, but traders will get a chance to react to Weekly U.S. Unemployment Claims, the Core PCE Price Index and fresh Personal Spending data. A speech by FOMC Member Jerome Powell at 9:45 a.m. ET will be watch closely by investors because of its possible impact on U.S. interest rates. Earlier in the week, Powell said that the central bank may raise interest rates twice in 2015 with the first possibly taking place in September.

 At this time, the Aussie may be sensitive to central bank news because of the possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the year.

Technically, the main trend is up on the daily swing chart. Momentum, however, has been to the downside since June 18. The short-term range is .7643 to .7848. Its pivot at .7745 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Yesterday’s close below this level is giving the market a downside bias.

The two angles that have provided support the past two days are at .7703 and .7687 today. A failure to hold .7687 is likely to lead to a test of the next uptrending angle at .7673. This is the last angle before the .7643 main bottom. An uptrending angle at .7642 forms a support cluster with this bottom.

Taking out .7642 will likely lead to an acceleration to the downside with the two main bottoms at .7598 and .7597 the next likely targets.

Overcoming the pivot at .7745 will be the first sign of strength. Overcoming the uptrending angle at .7763 will be the next. Look for an acceleration to the upside if .7777 is taken out with conviction. The first target is a loose resistance cluster formed by a downtrending angle at .7862, a major 50% level at .7879 and an uptrending angle at .7883.

Based on the close at .7702, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the angle at .7687.