AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 30, 2015 Forecast

The AUD/USD rebounded into the close after taking out sell stops below the previous main bottoms at .7598 and .7597. The rally stopped short of the April 13 bottom at .7551 and the April 2 bottom at .7532.

Additional downside targets were a pair of downtrending angles at .7568 and .7522. Crossing to the bearish side of the angles and sustaining the move would’ve put the market in an extremely weak position.

Monday’s strong comeback formed a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom chart pattern. It also created a new short-term range at .7848 to .7585. Its retracement zone at .7716 to .7748 is the primary upside target today. An additional resistance angle comes in at .7708.

Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to come in on the first test of .7716 to .7748. They are going to try to form a secondary lower top. This could lead to another break.

Overcoming the retracement zone will create a short-term bullish scenario and indicate that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels. A sustained move over .7747 could trigger a rally into the next downtrending angle at .7778. The next short-term angle comes in at .7813. The last major angle before the .7848 drops in at .7842.

A trade through .7848 will turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.

The tone of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at .7711. A trade through this price will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. Holding above it will set a bullish tone. Trading through it then falling back below it will suggest that yesterday’s rally was triggered by short-covering rather than new buying.