AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 4, 2015 Forecast

After a two day surge, profit-takers hit the AUD/USD on Wednesday, setting up the Forex pair for a possible retracement of the short-term rally triggered by the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement earlier in the week.

The new short-term range is .7597 to .7818. Its retracement zone is .7707 to .7681. This zone is important because the first rally from a major bottom is usually triggered by short-covering. The second rally is usually formed by new buyers.

If buyers step in to defend the market on a test of .7707 to .7681 then start watching for a change in trend to up. If sellers come in to drive the market through this zone then look for the break to extend into the bottom at .7597 in an effort to resume the downtrend and make .7818 a new main top.

Based on the close at .7741, the first resistance levels today are a pair of uptrending angles at .7746 and .7762. This is followed by the minor top at .7818 and a major downtrending angle at .7842. Taking out this angle will likely lead to the completion of the last major break at .7879.

On the downside, the first support is the 50% level at .7707, followed by the Fibonacci level at .7681 and a pair of uptrending angles at .7677 and .7647.

There is a steep uptrending angle at .7757. The market is expected to open under this angle, giving it an early downside bias. The tone of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to this angle. Opening under .7757 will likely lead to early selling pressure. Overcoming this angle will indicate the presence of buyers.