AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – November 21, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading higher shortly before the U.S. opening after hitting its lowest level since June 14. The rally is being driven by profit-taking, short-covering and probably some aggressive counter-trend buying as investors took advantage of extremely oversold conditions and thin-volume.

After early session weakness, the Australian Dollar climbed against its major rivals, after the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe suggested that there is no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy, but the bank’s next move is likely to be a rate hike, rather than a rate cut.

“If the economy continues to improve as expected, it is more likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, rather than down,” Lowe said in Sydney.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, today’s outside move has put the AUD/USD in a position to post a dramatic and potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

Today’s intraday low at .7532 matched the June 14 main bottom at the same price. A trade through this level will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The new main range is .7729 to .7532. If the current reversal bottom rally gains traction then we could see a move into its retracement zone at .7631 to .7654 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at .7575 and the intraday momentum, the next upside target is a downtrending angle at .7599. This angle has been guiding the market lower for 13 trading sessions so we could see a technical bounce on the first test. It is also the trigger point for an acceleration into at least .7631 over the short-term.

A close over .7549 will produce a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. Therefore, I think we’ll have to call this the key support price today.