AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – October 3, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is rebounding after inching lower early Tuesday in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. The RBA left the official cash rate unchanged at its historic low of 1.5 percent for the 14^th month in a row.

The decision to keep rates on hold at October’s monetary policy board meeting was widely predicted by economists and experts, with most predicting rate hikes some time in the middle of next year or later.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, the AUD/USD is in the “window of time” for a potentially bullish closing price reversal top.

We have the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we had the lower-low earlier today, now all we need is a higher close to form the reversal bottom.

The main retracement zone is .7847 to .7782. The market has been trying to consolidate inside this zone for four consecutive sessions. Earlier today, it reached a low of .7785 before rallying back to .7808.

If the rally begins to gain traction then .7943 to .7981 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price at .7808 (0827 GMT) and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7782.

A sustained move over .7782 will indicate that aggressive counter-trend buyers are coming in to stop the selling. Overcoming yesterday’s close at .7826 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Closing over .7826 will form the closing price reversal bottom.

Overtaking the main 50% level at .7847 will shift momentum to the upside.

A sustained move under .7782 will signal that sellers are still in control. This could trigger an acceleration into the long-term uptrending angle a .7731. This is the last potential support angle before the .7571 main bottom.

The conditions are right for a closing price reversal bottom today.