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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – September 7, 2017 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Sep 7, 2017, 04:29 UTC

The AUD/USD is trading lower early in the session on Thursday. Traders are reacting to the Australian Retail Sales report that showed a 0.0% change, below

Australian Dollar

The AUD/USD is trading lower early in the session on Thursday. Traders are reacting to the Australian Retail Sales report that showed a 0.0% change, below the 0.2% estimate. The previous month’s report was revised lower to 0.2%.

AUDUSD
Daily AUDUSD

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the upside momentum has slowed since Tuesday’s rally to .8028. Yesterday, the AUD/USD posted an inside move. Today, it is trading inside that range. This may be an indication of investor indecision and impending volatility. It may also mean the market is going through a shift in investor sentiment from bullish to bearish.

A trade through .8028 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration into the next main top at .8065.

The main range is .8065 to .7807. Its retracement zone is .7936 to .7966. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the market. Holding above this zone will continue to support an upside bias. Breaking back under this zone will show the emergence of a downside bias.

AUDUSD
Daily AUDUSD Short-Term

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7987 at 0416 GMT, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending angle at .7915.

Holding above .7915 will signal the presence of buyers. If this leads to increased buying, we could see the rally extend into the next downtrending angle at .7990. This is the last potential resistance angle before the .8065 main bottom.

A sustained move under .7915 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into a cluster of potential support angles at .7977, .7971, and .7966.

Taking out .7966 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the 50% level at .7936 and the uptrending angle at .7921.

Australian Dollar traders are confused at this time. The weak GDP and retail sales numbers support the RBA’s neutral stance. The RBA also wants to see a weaker currency. However, buying is being driven by the possibility of lower U.S. interest rates and increased demand for risky assets. This is why the Forex pair may settle inside the .7936 to .7966 range.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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