AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 12, 2015, 04:57 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD soared 83 points to 0.7146 after employment data blew away expectations to the surprise of the markets. The

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD soared 83 points to 0.7146 after employment data blew away expectations to the surprise of the markets. The Aussie bounced on the surprise data but remains well below its projected trading level. The jobless rate fell below 6 percent for only the second time in nearly 18 months in October, after a surge in the actual number of people employed, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The ABS said on Thursday there was an increase of nearly 60,000 in the labour force, pushing the jobless rate down from 6.2 per cent to 5.9 per cent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate was last below 6 per cent in May this year and before that, in May last year. However, on a trend basis – after ironing out volatility in the seasonally-adjusted data – unemployment has been steady above 6 per cent since May last year.

The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates any time soon are dwindling following stronger than expected employment figures that put a rocket under the Australian dollar on Thursday. The RBA is becoming increasingly concerned with Australia’s inflation, which has not been picking up in the face of record low interest rates, changing its forecast to come in at the bottom end of its 2 to 3 per cent target range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572