Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD soared 83 points to 0.7146 after employment data blew away expectations to the surprise of the markets. The
The AUD/USD soared 83 points to 0.7146 after employment data blew away expectations to the surprise of the markets. The Aussie bounced on the surprise data but remains well below its projected trading level. The jobless rate fell below 6 percent for only the second time in nearly 18 months in October, after a surge in the actual number of people employed, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The ABS said on Thursday there was an increase of nearly 60,000 in the labour force, pushing the jobless rate down from 6.2 per cent to 5.9 per cent.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate was last below 6 per cent in May this year and before that, in May last year. However, on a trend basis – after ironing out volatility in the seasonally-adjusted data – unemployment has been steady above 6 per cent since May last year.
The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates any time soon are dwindling following stronger than expected employment figures that put a rocket under the Australian dollar on Thursday. The RBA is becoming increasingly concerned with Australia’s inflation, which has not been picking up in the face of record low interest rates, changing its forecast to come in at the bottom end of its 2 to 3 per cent target range.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
NZD |
Business NZ PMI (Oct) |
53.3 |
|
55.4 |
|
||
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance (Oct) |
49% |
45% |
44% |
|
||
AUD |
Employment Change (Oct) |
58.6K |
15.0K |
-0.8K |
|||
AUD |
Full Employment Change (Oct) |
40.0K |
|
-10.4K |
|||
AUD |
Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
5.9% |
6.2% |
6.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, November 13, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
||
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.8% |
1.6% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
||
EUR |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.7% |
1.5% |
|
||
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
||
EUR |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
|
18.2B |
11.2B |
|
||
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
||
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
||
USD |
Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
|
84.0 |
82.1 |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) |
|
91.5 |
90.0 |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Mester Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count |
|
|
572 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction
Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction
Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov
Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov
Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs
Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi
Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction
Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov