AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is flat in the morning session holding at 0.7226 with no data on the calendar following a US holiday so there was no direction in the morning session. JPMorgan think the Australian dollar will bottom early in the year at 0.6700 before recovering to 0.7200 at the end of the year. Today AUD/USD is down 20 pips to 0.7232.

“Australia’s terms of trade have fallen 30% since 3Q11, a compelling drag on the currency and nominal GDP in recent years. But for 2016, we do not have a lot of shape in our forecast profile for the terms of trade, largely because we see Australia’s major commodity prices as mostly range bound in the year ahead,” they wrote in a client note.

The Australian dollar had regained some ground after falling on worse-than-expected capital expenditure figures on Thursday afternoon.

But it has hardly moved since because of quiet overnight trade due to the Thanksgiving public holiday in the US and no significant overseas data.

The RBA’s interest rate decision on Tuesday will be followed by third quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday, balance of trade figures on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 30, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction