Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 16 points to trade at 0.7202 after retail sales met expectations and the trade balance printed better than
The AUD/USD gained 16 points to trade at 0.7202 after retail sales met expectations and the trade balance printed better than expected. The Australian dollar has recovered from its overnight weakness at the hands of a US dollar boosted by speculation about a Federal Reserve interest rate rise.
Australian retailers have continued their recent solid performance, with sales increasing 0.4 per cent in September. The seasonally adjusted result was in line with expectations and follows another 0.4 per cent rebound in August after sales fell in July.
However, on an annualized basis sales growth slipped back marginally to 3.6 per cent. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver said the figures showed consumer spending was continuing to make an OK, but not a strong, contribution to September quarter GDP growth. Spending on household goods rose 1 per cent with electrical equipment up 2.2 per cent.
Australia’s international trade performance beat expectations, with the deficit narrowing to $2.3 billion in September from $2.7 billion in August.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
2.800M |
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4.100M |
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NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) |
-0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
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NZD |
Unemployment Rate (Q3) |
6.0% |
6.0% |
5.9% |
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AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
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AUD |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
-2.317B |
-3.000B |
-2.711B |
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CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Oct) |
52.0 |
50.8 |
50.5 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
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JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
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USD |
FOMC Member Stanley Fischer |
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EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) |
|
1.0% |
-1.8% |
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EUR |
ECB Economic Bulletin |
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EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.2% |
0.0% |
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EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
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GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Nov) |
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0.50% |
0.50% |
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GBP |
BoE MPC Meeting Minutes |
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GBP |
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
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USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
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USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
262K |
260K |
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USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.3% |
-1.4% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Stanley Fischer |
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USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov
Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov
Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs
Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov
Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov
Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction
Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction
Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL
Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction
Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction