AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 15, 2016

The Australian Dollar is trading higher mostly on increased demand for higher-yielding assets since the Westpac Consumer Sentiment report came out below expectations. The AUD/USD is trading .7481, up 0.0019 or +0.25%.

In current news, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment showed that overall, consumer sentiment remains consistent with an improved outlook for the economy, however, but not at the pace forecast by economists.

The leading indicator of Australian consumer confidence rose for a second consecutive month in September, posting an increase of 0.3%, following a 2% increase the prior month. Economists were looking for a read of 1.0%. They noted that consumer likely took favorably to lower interest rates and increased stability following the recent federal election.

Looking forward, Australia has an active release schedule for Thursday with reports on Employment Change for August, the Full Employment Change for August and the Unemployment rate for August. Traders are looking for the employment change to show a 15.0K increase, lower than the previous 26.2K increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.7%.

The Aussie is expected to be most sensitive to any movement in U.S. interest rates and equity markets. Higher Treasury yields will likely underpin the U.S. Dollar which should pressure the Australian Dollar. A firmer stock market will also increase demand for the higher-risk Aussie Dollar.

However, we could see continued selling pressure on the AUD/USD if investors continue to shed risky assets ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on September 21.

Since we are in a news driven market, we are likely to see a two-sided trade since many investors will refrain from taking big positions ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

 

Today’s economic releases:        

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date/Time Country Type

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction