AUDUSD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Attempting a Breakdown

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 01.05.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the week, slicing through the 0.66 level. The 0.66 level is an area that has been important, but I think there’s even more support at the 0.6550 level. Anything below there then opens up a rather big move, and I think we would see a lot of “risk off behavior” around the world. Remember, the Australian economy is based on exporting hard commodities, so they need the rest of the world to be in decent economic health in order to send out commodities. Furthermore, Australia is highly sensitive to China, which of course is sensitive to the rest of the world as well.

Longer term, I think we have to look at this massive bearish flag and the possibility of an “H pattern”, as signs that we are going lower. Rallies at this point in time will continue to be sold into, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see sellers come back into the market. The Australian economy is going to fluctuate with the rest of the world, and of course it’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia recently chose not to raise rates over the last 2 meetings, while the rest of the world continues to tighten. All of this taken together suggests that the Aussie is probably going to continue to see a lot of negativity.

It’s not until we break above the 0.68 level that I would consider the Aussie as breaking back out to the upside, which is something that I don’t expect to see anytime soon. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday may have a lot to do with where we go next also.

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