AUDUSD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Has an Extremely Bullish Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 12.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading week, as it now looks like we are trying to threaten the 50-Week EMA. The 0.68 level above should offer significant resistance, as it was the top of the previous consolidation region. The market has been very bullish over the last 2 weeks, but when you look at the weekly chart, you can see just how there is a significant amount of resistance just above.

Signs of exhaustion on the daily chart will probably lead to selling and opening up the possibility of a move down to the 0.66 level. 0.66 level of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it is also an area where we had seen support previously when we were consolidating. We did break through the bottom once before, so it does suggest we could drop from there. If we were to break down below the 0.66 level, then it’s possible that the 0.64 level was targeted because it is the “measured move” of the previous consolidation rectangle that we had broken through.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the 50-Week EMA, which would also have the market breaking above the 0.68 level, it would be a very bullish sign. At that point, the market is likely to continue looking to the 200-Week EMA, which would obviously be a very bullish sign. Obviously, that would also be a very anti-US dollar move more than anything else. All things being equal, this is a market that is trying to determine where it wants to go longer-term, but that being said the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to favor the US dollar, but not like there is a huge gulf between the 2 now, so that being said, the market is probably going to continue to be very noisy, and of course the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the global growth story, and of course the commodity markets on the whole. With this, expect a lot of volatility regardless of what happens next.

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