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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 16 – November 20, 2015 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 14, 2015, 17:02 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  The AUD/USD rebounded last week after early weakness to close up 0.0080, or 1.14% at .7123. The catalyst for the move

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 16 – November 20, 2015 Forecast

AUDUSD
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  The AUD/USD rebounded last week after early weakness to close up 0.0080, or 1.14% at .7123. The catalyst for the move was a better-than-expected Australian employment report.  

The bullish labor report showed the economy added 58,600 jobs in October. This soundly beat economist estimates of a 15,000 job increase. This was also the largest monthly increase since March 2012. The jobless rate dropped to 5.9 percent, its lowest level in 19 months. 

The labor report was strong enough to push down nearby bond yields, indicating that speculators were reducing the odds of a December rate cut. The odds for a rate hike next month dropped to about 8%. A week ago, the odds were around 67%. Traders are now pricing in the possibility of only one rate cut in 2016. 

This week, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest U.S. consumer inflation data. Month-to-month core inflation is expected to rise 0.2%, or 1.9% annually. This will put it just under the Fed’s benchmark target of 2.0%. However, next month, the figure may rise to 2.0% or higher because last year’s steep drop in crude oil prices will start to be filtered out of the inflation equation. 

Also on-tap on Wednesday, November 18 are the minutes of the last Fed meeting. Hawkish minutes are likely to put some pressure on the AUD/USD because they will highlight the divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the somewhat-dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Weekly AUD/USD
Weekly AUD/USD

 Important Reports to Watch this Week

            Date                        Time             Curr                                        Event                                                 Previous  Forecast                                                        

 

Sun Nov 15

All Day

ALL

 

G20 Meetings

         
 

 7:30pm ET

AUD

 

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

     

5.5%

 

Mon Nov 16

8:30am ET

USD

 

Empire State Manufacturing Index

   

-5.3

-11.4

 
 

4:30pm ET

AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

         
 

7:30pm ET

AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

         

Tue Nov 17

8:30am ET

USD

 

CPI m/m

   

0.2%

-0.2%

 
   

USD

 

Core CPI m/m

   

0.2%

0.2%

 
 

9:15am ET

USD

 

Capacity Utilization Rate

   

77.5%

77.5%

 
   

USD

 

Industrial Production m/m

   

0.1%

-0.2%

 
 

17th-19th

USD

 

Mortgage Delinquencies

     

5.30%

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

NAHB Housing Market Index

   

64

64

 
 

4:00pm ET

USD

 

TIC Long-Term Purchases

     

20.4B

 
 

5:15pm ET

AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

         
 

6:00pm ET

AUD

 

CB Leading Index m/m

     

-0.4%

 
 

6:30pm ET

AUD

 

MI Leading Index m/m

     

0.1%

 
 

7:30pm ET

AUD

 

Wage Price Index q/q

   

0.6%

0.6%

 

Wed Nov 18

8:00am ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

         
 

8:30am ET

USD

 

Building Permits

   

1.15M

1.11M

 
   

USD

 

Housing Starts

   

1.16M

1.21M

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

     

4.2M

 
 

2:00pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

         

Thu Nov 19

8:30am ET

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

   

272K

276K

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

0.1

-4.5

 
   

USD

 

CB Leading Index m/m

   

0.5%

-0.2%

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Natural Gas Storage

         
 

12:30pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

         

Fri Nov 20

                 

Sat Nov 21

12:00pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

         

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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