The Aussie is getting clipped across the majors. AUD/USD is down 0.38%, AUD/EUR down 0.13%, AUD/GBP down 0.20%, and AUD/JPY down 0.19%. Broad weakness. The positive Australian PMI headlines which should have helped the Aussie, did nothing.
The Services PMI Flash jumped to 50.7 from below 50. So the Australian economy isn’t rolling over as badly as feared. This is mildly bullish for AUD/USD as stronger services activity can support domestic growth expectations and reduce pressure on the RBA to turn dovish too quickly.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash reading rose to 51.3 from 50.2, keeping the sector above the 50 expansion line. This is mildly supportive of the Aussie, giving bulls a positive datapoint to lean on.
AUD/JPY is bouncing around its 50-SMA. It really appears that there is consolidation going on before it starts to make a move higher. Momentum is leading the price as the RSI has crossed above 50 with the Z-Score SMA trending higher. The Supertrend needs to flip back positive and confirm the upmove higher towards 114.730 resistance.
While the Supertrend flipped positive and the RSI is heading towards 50 with the Z-Score SMA trending higher, the AUD/USD is still below its 50-SMA on the Renko chart. To get back into full upward trend gear it needs to get back up above that MA. Once the Aussie pushes through that threshold it can seek to retest the 0.72775 resistance in the short term.
Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070
Medium Term Path: AUD/USD appears to be consolidating before making another move higher. The 0.7015 level is acting as medium term support for the FX pair. Hopefully the momentum can pick back up to carry the Aussie back above its 50-SMA on the Renko so that it can continue its upward trajectory.
Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with experience in asset management, corporate strategy, and multi-asset investing.