AUD/USD remains supported as broad Aussie strength, improving AUD/JPY momentum and a very constructive Renko structure has demand intact. But the softer home loans print adds some caution to the medium term economic picture of Australia.
AUD is in a bit of a bid. It’s up about 0.10% against the Dollar. It’s also stronger against the Euro, Pound and Yen so this isn’t just a weak USD play. There’s underlying demand for the currency. There’s still negotiations going on between the US and Iran so that could put the USD in bid very quickly but for now there’s positive movements for AUD.
After a strong 9.4% jump in February, May slipped to -4.3%, which suggests housing demand is losing some steam. This can dampen the economic prospects of Australia and potentially hurt the Aussie if this weakness continues. But at this time the trend is still positive for AUD/USD.
AUD/JPY, which is another proxy for AUD strength and Asian risk, broke through its Supertrend indicator and is heading towards resistance around the 114.305 level. The RSI is above 60 and also the Z-Score SMA is trending higher and near the 1 level. It seems things are very positive for the Aussie and very negative for the Yen when looking at this Renko structure.
AUD/USD flipped the Supertrend green and then pulled back towards the 50-SMA and bounced right off it. During that recent price move also bounced around the 50 level and the Z-Score SMA turned higher. The FX pair remains in a medium term uptrend since early April 2026.and is now looking to retest 0.72775 resistance.
Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070
Medium Term Path: The path for AUD/USD is clearly bullish. The FX pair needs to break through the 0.72715-0.72775 resistance zone as it has been consolidating a bit over the past couple of weeks. Once this is completed we can see the next level to watch being 0.7407. There is still some volatility in the atmosphere so it will not always be smooth sailing for the Aussie so pick your entries wisely.
Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with experience in asset management, corporate strategy, and multi-asset investing.