CBA Slump and Weak Breadth Pressure ASX 200 Index as Miners Hold Firm

ASX 200 Down as CBA Slumps While Miners Hold Steady

It’s really looking like it’s a battle between banks and miners. CBA is leading the banks lower, down 10.43% This is the worst 1-day percentage fall after setting aside more provisions for macro and Middle East risk, while investors also reacted to proposed housing tax changes that could slow investor mortgage demand. WBC, NAB and ANZ were also weaker in the session.

But miners did the heavy lifting with AAI (+5.39%), S32 (+3.22%) while the large cap names such as BHP (+2.91%) and RIO (+1.93%) helped to ease the index as copper and industrial metals stayed hot. Additionally there’s KMD, up 13.28%, which looks like a speculative rebound after its recent capital raise, refinancing and balance sheet repair story.

The ASX 200 Index was down almost 0.50% on the day. Market breadth is also weak with only 41% of ASX 200 Index members are below their 20-day SMA. Below the 50% level is a bearish sign and real downside capitulation is below 30%. So there may be some continued downside for the Index in the short to medium term when observing from a breadth perspective.

ASX 200 Heat Maps Shows Bank Selling, Led by CBA

Australia Home Loans Slide as Housing Demand Cools

The latest Australia’s home loans data was nasty. Its reading is -4.3%. What makes matters worse is that in February there was a big 9.4% jump. Pure head fake. Owner occupied housing demand is cooling again and doesn’t look good for the Australian economy. The ASX 200 is struggling partly due to this data release. If more of these bad data points are released it is very hard for me to see the RBA hiking rates further for 2026.

Home Loans QoQ Fell 4.3%, Reversing Part of February’s Rebound

ASX 200 Renko Attempting to Hold 8,600 Support

There’s been a failed attempt to break back above the 500-SMA for the ASX 200 Index. The Supertrend flipped from red, to green but briefly, and then flipped back to red. The Index is currently below its 50-SMA as well which is also trending lower. The ASX 200 is struggling at that 8,600 support. The Z-Score SMA does look a bit extended to the downside and the RSI is attempting to push higher. That’s the only bullish caveat here.

15-Brick Renko Shows ASX 200 Attempted a Weak Rebound at 500-SMA

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,915, 9,230

Medium Term Path: It’s looking bleak for the ASX 200. The only thing saving it are the RSI and Z-Score SMA which is grappling at the 8,600 support level. Moreover, there’s only 40% of stocks that are above their 20-day SMA. That’s not a good sign. The move lower could continue before there’s any real reversal. The ASX 200 needs to get back above its 500-SMA on the Renko and the breadth needs to get back above 50% before we even start thinking about changing the negative bias view.