Aussies Bulls Hold 0.71015 As Weak Industry Data And GDP Miss Tests Momentum

Heat Map Shows Broad Aussie Weakness

We’re seeing AUD weakness across the FX crosses. AUD/USD is down 0.27%, AUD/EUR is down 0.08%, AUD/GBP is down 0.09% and AUD/JPY is down 0.32%. Traders are trimming exposure AUD after the weak fundamental data and that’s fair. What we need to be concerned about is whether there’s a change in the medium term trend of AUD/USD.

AUD Weakens Against USD, EUR, GBP, And JPY

GDP Miss Adds Pressure

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product came in at 0.3% qoq, below the 0.5% forecast and also under the 0.9% prior. That’s not a good reading at all. No wonder AUD/USD is in the red today. This reading could have negative medium term implications for the Aussie. What needs to hold as well is global risk appetite and a cautionary RBA for the Aussie to move higher.

Australia GDP Growth Slows Below Forecast

Ai Group Industry Index Stays Weak

The latest reading of the Ai Group Industry Index is -26.5, worse than the -25.5 prior and very deep below 0. This is another short to medium term drag for the Aussie. Weak activity usually pressures growth expectations and can make traders question how long the RBA can stay firm.

Australian Industry Remains Stuck In Contraction

AUD/JPY Shows Carry Support Is Still Alive

The 0.225 brick AUD/JPY Renko chart is still in an uptrend with the FX pair having a Supertrend flipped green, above its 21-EMA, 50-SMA and 500-SMA. However, momentum is cooling with the RSI pointing lower (but still above 50) and the Z-Score SMA still trending lower. There will be fits and starts to the uptrend so there’s nothing to be seriously cautious about when looking at the AUD/JPY move.

AUD/JPY Stays Constructive Above MAs

AUD/USD Holds Long Term Trend

The trend structure on the AUD/USD on the Renko looks mixed. While the FX pair is above its long term 500-SMA, it did cross below its 50-SMA and is currently testing the 21-EMA. The Supertrend remains in the green. Momentum is slowing for the FX cross with the RSI pointing lower (but still above 50) and the Z-Score SMA is starting to trend lower as well. AUD/USD looks as though it is consolidating around the 0.71015-0.72 zone before it makes a distinct move.

AUD/USD 0.0015-brick Renko Holds Above the 500-SMA

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Support Levels: 0.6833,0.71015,0.70720

Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070

Medium Term Path: There’s choppy action on AUD/USD but the medium term trend is still upward. We see the FX pair consolidating before making its next move. Some patience is required here.