Australian Dollar Continues Downward Move

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the week but then turned around to show signs of weakness again. By doing so, the market has broken through the 50 Week EMA, and the 0.73 handle. This is a market that had been consolidating between the 0.75 level on the top, and the 0.70 level on the bottom. When we formed a shooting star a couple of weeks ago, it showed that the market was not quite ready to go higher. Because of this, we will likely try to get to the bottom of this market, but it is worth noting that we are rapidly approaching what I would consider being “fair value”, based on the fact that it is in the middle of such a highly defined consolidation area.

There is a “double bottom” at the 0.70 level, and I think it will be very difficult to break through there. If we were to do so, then it would be a very negative sign, perhaps in what would be a massive move in favor of the US dollar around the world. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, but I do think that we are more likely than not going to see it hold. I expect volatility and choppy behavior, but quite frankly that is about the only thing that you can expect in most markets at this point.

Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the commodity markets, so it is worth paying attention to those as well. If there is going to be a continued concern about overall global growth, that comes into the picture as well.

AUD/USD Price Forecast Video 25.04.22

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