Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks $0.7150 as RBA Rate Hike Bets Surge to 75%

The AUD/USD pair is at the moment looking very bullish as it trades just a hair under 0.7130 to 0.7175 on March 11 2026. This strong performance has lifted the Australian Dollar to levels not seen in over two years.

At the root of all this is a huge shift in interest rate expectations – a warning from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has caused the market to start pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the March 17 meeting.

This change in outlook is a pretty stark contrast to the US Dollar which is struggling after a pretty dismal February payroll report came in showing a 92,000 job loss.

RBA Being Hawkish and Oil Price Inflation Shock

The Reserve Bank of Australia is now definitely the most hawkish of all the major central banks, and this is largely down to inflation concerns. In Australia domestic headline inflation is running at 3.8% and shows no signs of slowing down – petrol prices are a major contributor to this, and things could get even worse.

The Reserve Bank’s Governor Michele Bullock has characterised the upcoming meeting as a live event – and Deputy Governor Hauser has reinforced this by saying that the economy is running at full steam with little to no spare capacity.

In fact lots of major institutions, including Westpac and the National Australia Bank, have now changed their forecasts to expect a rate hike at the next meeting which would lift the official cash rate to 4.1%. This policy divergence is a big deal for the AUD because it creates a pretty favourable interest rate differential against a US Federal Reserve that is struggling with slowing labour markets.

Chinese Trade Surplus & Geopolitical Risk Factors

External factors have actually helped out the AUD in recent times, despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. China has just reported a massive trade surplus of $213.62 billion in February which far exceeded market expectations and highlighted a 21.8% surge in exports. This has actually helped to offset the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar that would normally kick in during times of regional conflict.

Of course the escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions and the fact that oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel initially put the brakes on riskier assets but the AUD has actually held up pretty well thanks to its strong ties to the stabilising Chinese economy and rising domestic bond yields which recently hit a high of 5.0%.

AUD/USD Price Prediction: A Breakout Above $0.7150 Targets $0.7200

Looking at the 4 hour chart the AUD/USD pair has finally broken above the $0.7110 to $0.7150 resistance zone which is a pretty big deal – it means that buyers are now firmly in control following a series of higher lows from support at the $0.6957 trendline.

Structural Breakout: With the move above $0.7150 the short term trend is now clearly bullish – the buyers have the upper hand.
Moving Averages: The pair is now sitting well above the 50-EMA at $0.7060 and the 200-EMA at $0.7010 – both of which are pretty good indicators of a strong long-term trend.
Momentum Indicators: The RSI is climbing back up towards 65 which is a pretty good sign of strengthening bullish momentum – and it’s not overbought just yet so there’s still room for further gains.
Resistance Targets: The next stop for the AUD/USD is the $0.7192 level and then there’s a major structural hurdle at $0.7237.

Trade Idea: Look for long entry points on any pullbacks above $0.7110 that target $0.7235 – and place a stop-loss below $0.7055 to limit your risk.