Bulls Hold the 7,100 Zone

The S&P 500 is bending, not breaking.

After the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, the index cooled from its recent highs, but the reaction has been controlled. That’s the key point. The market had every excuse to sell harder: crude rallied, the 10-year yield pushed near 4.40%, the dollar strengthened, and the Fed reminded traders that inflation remains elevated.

Still, SPX is holding the 7,100 zone.

That tells me buyers are not abandoning the trend. They’re rotating, waiting, and forcing the market to prove that this is more than a one-day post-Fed wobble. The Fed’s message was cautious, but not damaging enough to reverse the bullish setup. Solid economic activity remains in place. Inflation is still a problem. The Middle East is still a risk. Yet the market is filtering the noise through one question: can earnings keep carrying the index?

Growth Data Supports the Setup

The latest U.S. data helped the bulls.

The attached durable goods chart shows April orders rising 0.8%, ahead of the 0.5% forecast. That matters because it points to still-firm business spending, even with borrowing costs elevated. Not spectacular. Good enough.

Housing starts also came in better than expected, with the attached chart showing 1.502 million starts versus a 1.400 million forecast. Construction activity is holding up. That reduces the immediate recession argument and keeps the soft-landing narrative alive for another day.

So the macro backdrop is not perfect. It rarely is. But it is still strong enough to keep buyers defending SPX above 7,100.

Durable Goods Beat Forecasts as Business Spending Holds Up

U.S. durable goods orders chart showing April 2026 actual above forecast

Source: TradingView

Housing Starts Surprise Higher, Keeping the Growth Story Intact

U.S. housing starts chart showing April 2026 actual above forecast

Source: TradingView

AI Earnings Take the Wheel

Now comes the real test.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta report after the close, with Apple due Thursday. These stocks are not just market leaders. They are the market’s weight room. Together, the five mega-cap names represent roughly 24% of the S&P 500, so their earnings will likely decide whether the index breaks back toward 7,220 or spends more time chopping above 7,100.

The market wants proof now. AI capex alone won’t do it. Investors want margins, revenue conversion, and cash-flow leverage.

Microsoft and Apple look better positioned on profitability. Alphabet and Amazon face tougher questions around infrastructure spending. Meta is more nuanced, with near-term margin pressure but a potentially better full-year AI story. If the earnings calls deliver, the current pullback could look like a clean pause before another leg higher. If they don’t, SPX probably retests the lower end of the support band.

Renko Chart Shows a Bullish Reset

The 12-brick Renko shows a bullish market taking a breath.

Price is sitting near 7,126–7,127, just above the 7,100 support zone and well above the 500-SMA. That spread is important. The broader trend remains positive, even though short-term momentum has cooled.

The recent red bricks after the push above 7,200 show profit-taking, not panic. RSI is near 46, which is soft but not washed out. The Z-Score SMA near -0.4 confirms the same thing. A mild reset, not a downside impulse.

Bulls are defending 7,100, not waiting for some deeper washout. A quick recovery above 7,150 would strengthen the case for another run at 7,185–7,220. A break below 7,100 would expose 7,086, then 7,000, but the current structure still favors buyers while that zone holds.

SPX Renko Cools as Bulls Defend 7,100

12-brick S&P 500 Renko showing price above the 500-SMA while RSI and Z-Score reset.

Source: TradingView

S&P 500 Outlook

Current trend direction: Bullish
Bias: Positive
Key support levels: 6,310, 6,920
Key resistance levels: 7,180, 7,450

Medium-term path: I expect the S&P 500 to remain constructive while buyers defend 7,100. The Renko chart is cooling, but the broader structure is still bullish, with price comfortably above the 500-SMA. Strong durable goods and housing starts data support the growth story, while the Fed’s hold keeps the policy backdrop stable enough for equities. The next move depends on mega-cap earnings. If AI spending translates into margins and cash flow, SPX can retest 7,220 and potentially stretch toward 7,300. If earnings disappoint, expect a tactical reset into 7,100–7,086, not a trend reversal, unless that support zone fails decisively.