Australian Dollar to New Highs or Lower?

The Australian dollar is going to be in focus during this week. Retail sales  released on Monday as expected at 0.4% while the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its interest rates unchanged, also we have US jobs report on Friday. If the jobs data come out in line with or higher than expected then the probability of a March Fed rate increase will be certain.

AUD/USD Price Forecast

The Australian dollar couldn’t have managed to stay above 0.7760, we could see the resistance line and bands at this area.

Since August 2016 the Aussie has been trading in a relatively narrow corridor between 0.7460 and 0.7750.

We can see in the charts the resistance line since 2000, the AUD/USD broke this line, and can’t stay above him again – as long as AUD/USD will remain below those levels the target will be lower at 0.59 price area

Also see similar move in the chart in 1998-1999, at this stage, we need to see a distinct reversal price pattern in order for the short-term trend to turn bullish or bearish.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Support area level stay in 0.7620, 0.7540,0.7460.0.7370

Resistance area level stay in 0.7960,0.8060,0.8180,0.8640

We may see a bounce next week to 0.77 price area again, but if 0.7430 price level will be reached, then the AUD/USD could start a much deeper correction.

Also look on the COT position:

Cot report show us an increase in short position, need to keep an eye on that.

In addition, there is Harmonic Cypher pattern in charts which supports the bearish prediction.