Bitcoin (BTC) Fear & Greed Index Slips Ahead of US Retail Sales

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.71% on Thursday to consolidate the Wednesday 4.77% rally.
• The breakout session came despite an acceleration in US wholesale inflationary pressure that left the NASDAQ 100 flat for the session.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell from 18/100 to 15/100, with investors now looking ahead to US retail sales figures due today.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.71%. Following a 4.77% rally on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,577.

A mixed session saw BTC slide to a low of $19,620 in response to US wholesale inflation and weekly jobless claims numbers before making a move.

Steering clear of the First Major Support Level at $19,342, BTC struck a high of $20,870.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $20,698 before easing back.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered the much-needed support by supporting a 75-basis point rate hike.

While tracking the NASDAQ 100, BTC outperformed, with the US equity markets grappling with corporate earnings.

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.03%.

At the time of writing, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 61.5 points.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slipped ahead of US Retail Sales Data

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index slipped from 18/100 to 15/100, reversing the Thursday increase. The downside came despite bitcoin finding support, with uncertainty ahead of the US retail sales figures weighing.

A likely shift in the regulatory landscape, the threat of a US recession, and uncertainty over Fed monetary policy also continue to test investor sentiment.

The bulls will be looking for a return to the “Fear” zone to signal an end to the crypto winter.

Today’s retail sales figures from the US will likely dictate direction over the near term. Upbeat numbers would bring sub-10/100 levels into play to pressure BTC and the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.68% to $20,438.

A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $20,587 before falling to a low of $20,434.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $20,353 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,092.

BTC would need a bullish session to support a breakout from the Thursday high of $20,870.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,603 and resistance at $22,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $22,856.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,842 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,108 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,856.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $20,590.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA flattening in on the 200-day EMA; bitcoin price positive.

A further narrowing of the 50-day EMA to the 100-day EMA would bring $21,000 into play.

The bulls will look for a breakout from the 100-day EMA and R1 to target R2 and the 200-day EMA, currently at $21,950.

On a trend analysis basis, bitcoin would need a move through a May 30 high of $32,503 to target the March 28 high of $48,192. Near-term, resistance at $25,000 will likely be the first test should the upward trend resume.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target.