Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Fed Rate Cut Bets Impact BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows

BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Net Outflows Amid Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts.

On Monday (Mar 18), BTC declined by 1.22%. Partially reversing a 4.67% rally from Sunday, BTC ended the session at $67,657.

Falling bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut impacted buyer demand for BTC. Better-than-expected US housing sector data further reduced bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased from 48 to 51 in March. Economists consider the US housing market a litmus test of the US economy.

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis point June rate cut fell from 55.2% to 50.8% on Monday.

Reducing bets on a Fed interest rate cut impacted BTC-spot ETF market flows at the start of the week.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw record-high net outflows of $642.5 million on Monday (Mar 18). Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw record low net inflows of $5.9 million. The numbers for GBTC and FBTC point to net outflows for the BTC-spot ETF market for the first time since Mar 1. However, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data for Mar 18 is currently unavailable.

(All BTC-spot ETF market flow data are from Farside Investors).

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index Moves Deeper into Extreme Greed Territory

On Tuesday (Mar 19), the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 77 to 79. The move deeper into the Extreme Greed zone signaled a higher chance of a BTC price correction. Significantly, the increase aligned with falling bets on an H1 Fed rate cut and a Tuesday (Mar 19) BTC retreat to sub-$66,000.

While the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sends bearish signals, near-term trends will hinge on the Fed and BTC-spot ETF market flows.

The BTC-spot ETF market saw record weekly net inflows in the week ending Mar 15. Flow data for Tuesday (Mar 19) and bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut may continue to influence buyer appetite for BTC before the Fed interest rate decision (Wed).

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the $69,000 resistance level would support a move to the Mar 14 all-time high of $73,810. A BTC breakout from the ATH could give the bulls a run at the $75,000 handle.

On Tuesday, US economic data, Fed rate cut bets, and BTC-spot ETF market flow data warrant investor consideration.

On the other hand, a break below the $64,000 support level could signal a drop toward the $60,365 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 54.48, suggests a BTC return to the ATH of $73,810 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH hovered the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,480 resistance level would support a move to the $3,835 resistance level. If ETH breaks out from the $3,835 resistance level, the Mar 12 high of $4,091 could come into play.

Crypto-spot ETF-related updates warrant investor consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $3,300 handle could signal an ETH fall to the $3,244 support level and 50-day EMA. Buying pressure could intensify at the $3,244 support level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 45.36 indicates an ETH drop to the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.