The Week Ahead: Markets Brace for Powell and Jobs Data to Set the Tone This Week

Strong May Finish Sets the Stage—All Eyes Turn to the Fed and Jobs Data

U.S. stocks ended May sharply higher, with the S&P 500 gaining about 6% for the month, led by tech and AI names following a strong print from Nvidia. Inflation data also surprised to the downside, supporting the Fed’s current policy stance. This week, the focus pivots to the labor market and Fed commentary. Chair Jerome Powell speaks Monday, and May’s jobs report on Friday will provide key insight into hiring, wage pressure, and policy expectations heading into summer.

Key Economic and Earning Events

Monday (June 2):
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May); forecast: 49.3, prior: 48.7
• 17:00 GMT – Fed Chair Powell speaks
• Earnings – Campbell Soup (CPB) $0.65; Science Applications (SAIC) $2.13; Credo Tech (CRDO) $0.27

Tuesday (June 3):
• 14:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings (Apr); forecast: 7.19M
• Earnings – Dollar General (DG) $1.48; Donaldson (DCI) $0.95; Ferguson (FERG) $2.03; NIO -$2.56; Ollie’s (OLLI) $0.71; Signet (SIG) $1.01
• Earnings (after close) – CrowdStrike (CRWD) $0.66 on $1.1B; HPE $0.33; Asana $0.02; Guidewire $0.46; Couchbase -$0.08; Yext $0.11

Wednesday (June 4):
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change (May); forecast: 110K, prior: 62K
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI (May); forecast: 52.0, prior: 51.6
• Earnings – Dollar Tree (DLTR) $1.20 on $4.5B; Genesco (GCO) -$2.09; REV Group (REVG) $0.57; Sprinklr (CXM) $0.10; Thor Industries (THO) $1.76
• Earnings (after close) – MongoDB (MDB) $0.66; PVH (PVH) $2.24; Five Below (FIVE) $0.78; Verint (VRNT) $0.23; Argan (AGX) $1.09; Descartes (DSGX) $0.44; Greif (GEF) $1.13

Thursday (June 5):
• 12:30 GMT – Initial Jobless Claims; forecast: 232K, prior: 240K
• Earnings – Brown-Forman (BF.B) $0.34; Ciena (CIEN) $0.52; Cracker Barrel (CBRL) $0.24; Hello Group (MOMO) $1.34; Toro (TTC) $1.39; Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) $0.04
• Earnings (after close) – Broadcom (AVGO) $1.57 on $15B; Lululemon (LULU) $2.58; DocuSign (DOCU) $0.81; Rubrik (RBRK) -$0.32; Braze (BRZE) $0.05; Samsara (IOT) $0.06; Vail Resorts (MTN) $10.04; Petco (WOOF) -$0.02; ServiceTitan (TTAN) -$0.40; Zumiez (ZUMZ) -$0.78

Friday (June 6):
• 12:30 GMT – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May); forecast: +0.3%, prior: +0.2%
• 12:30 GMT – Nonfarm Payrolls (May); forecast: 130K, prior: 177K
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate; forecast: 4.2%, prior: 4.2%
• Earnings – ABM Industries (ABM) $0.87

Powell Headlines a Data-Heavy Week for Policy Signals

Fed Chair Powell’s Monday remarks come as markets anticipate no rate cut until September. Last month’s Fed minutes reinforced a patient stance, with uncertainty tied to tariffs and inflation risks. Powell’s tone will be scrutinized for any change in bias. No other major Fed speeches or releases are scheduled this week.

Indexes Push Higher as Bulls Reclaim the Trend

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 19,113.77, above its 52-week moving average of 18,311.35 for a third straight week, extending a major reversal off April’s 14,784.03 low. Holding above the 52-week MA keeps bulls in control, with upside toward 20,204.58.

The S&P 500 finished at 5,911.69, well above its 52-week SMA of 5,724.44 and key support near 5,633.35. The next resistance level is the 6,147.43 high.

The Dow closed at 42,196.48, slightly above its 52-week moving average of 41,845.13. This gives the market a modest upside bias heading into the week.

All three indexes remain technically constructive as long as they hold above key moving averages.

Powell and Jobs Report: Market Awaits Its Next Catalyst

This week’s market tone hinges on Powell’s remarks and Friday’s jobs report. Forecasts point to slowing hiring (+130K), steady unemployment (4.2%), and moderate wage growth (+0.3%). Any upside surprise could delay rate cut expectations, while softness would increase pressure on the Fed to act.

CrowdStrike, Dollar Tree, and Broadcom offer insight into AI demand, consumer health, and enterprise tech. With earnings thinning and tariffs unresolved, labor data and Powell’s tone now set the pace for near-term positioning.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.