Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Breakdown Signals Deeper Correction

Breakdown from Consolidation

Silver plunged to a new pullback low of $46.09 on Monday, breaking down from a small consolidation pattern. The top rising channel line, a recent support, failed to hold, handing control to sellers. A close below the prior $47.54 low would confirm the breakdown. This looks likely given trading in the lower third of the range and a probable weak finish at the time of writing.

Next Support Targets

The 50-day moving average at $44.63 emerges as the next dynamic support, adjusting as it rises. Silver’s path may intersect the bull channel’s rising centerline, reinforcing this zone. The 10-week average at $45.76 adds weight, aligning near the channel’s center and signaling a potential floor.

Correction Depth

The 50% retracement at $45.72 coincides with the centerline, a plausible target after the $54.49 high two weeks ago. The September 29 channel breakout saw an upside overthrow, often pulling back to the midline rather than the bottom. This would complete a typical 50% retracement, offering clues on supply-demand shifts through price action here.

Short-Term Signals

The 10-day average turned down for the first time since early August, supporting a corrective phase. Prior two-day resistance at the 20-day average hinted at selling pressure. The 50-day line caps expected downside unless the correction intensifies, with the channel’s lower boundary as a secondary limit.

Outlook

A $47.54 close seals the breakdown, targeting $44.63-$45.72. The centerline’s behavior will reveal if bulls regroup or the bears press lower. Watch for $45.76 support—holding it keeps the bull trend viable, while a break risks the channel floor. Today’s action leans bearish until buyers counter at key levels.

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