Bitcoin (BTC) Rises Above $110K as ETF Inflows Boost Sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially snap a two-week losing streak after gaining 0.53% on Saturday, October 25. Following a 0.83% rise in the previous session, BTC extended its winning streak to three sessions.

Easing US-China trade tensions and expectations of back-to-back Fed rate cuts in October and December boosted demand for risk assets. Importantly, institutional demand rebounded during the week, lifting BTC higher.

Notably, traders brushed aside the ongoing US government shutdown, which entered day 26 on Sunday, October 26.

After initially climbing to an all-time high of $125,761 following the shutdown, BTC tumbled to an October 17 low of $103,587 before rebounding above $110,000.

US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Trigger Rebound

The US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $446.6 million in the reporting week ending October 24, sending BTC above the $110,000 level. Despite outflows of $1.23 billion in the previous week, inflows for October reached $4.22 billion, signaling a potentially bullish end to the month.

According to Farside Investors, key flows for the week included:

• BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $324.3 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $54.0 million
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $52.3 million.
• Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $117.1 million.

Fed Interest Rate Decision Looms

While spot ETF inflows improved sentiment, BTC is still down 2.44% for October. Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference could dictate market trends.

Economists expect back-to-back Fed rate cuts in October and December. Barring a larger rate cut at the Fed’s Wednesday, October 29, meeting, Fed Chair Powell’s stance on further monetary policy easing could be pivotal. Support for a December rate cut could boost demand for BTC, potentially reversing October’s losses. On the other hand, calls to delay further monetary policy adjustments may weigh on risk assets such as BTC.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of 25-basis point rate cuts in October and December stand at 98.3% and 91.1%, respectively.

While Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will be crucial, traders should closely monitor US-China trade headlines.

Key Week Ahead: APEC Summit to Spotlight Trump-Xi Meeting

The coming week could drive flow trends for US BTC-spot ETFs and influence BTC’s price outlook.

US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet on Thursday, October 30. A US-China trade deal lowering duties on Chinese goods could lift sentiment. However, stalled talks and an escalation in trade tensions could trigger a flight-to-safety, weighing on BTC.

BTC tumbled 5.82% to an October 10 low of $107,573 and extended its losses after President Trump threatened an additional 100% levy on Chinese shipments bound for the US.

Bitcoin’s price recovery lifted demand for Ethereum (ETH).

ETH Eyes $4,000: Weak Spot-ETH Demand Caps Gains

While BTC boosted demand for cryptocurrencies, ETH-spot ETFs faced another week of net outflows, keeping ETH below the $4,000 level.

ETH has fallen 1.19% this week and dropped by 5.02% in October, underscoring the influence of spot ETF flows in price trends.

US ETH-spot ETF issuers saw net outflows of $243.9 million in the reporting week ending October 24, following net outflows of $311.8 million in the previous week. Despite the second week of outflows, ETH-spot ETF issuers have reported net inflows of $553.1 million in October, supporting the move back toward $4,000.

Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several key events will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• US Senate votes on the stopgap funding bill.
• US economic indicators.
• The Fed interest rate decision and press conference.
• The US President Trump meeting with Chinese President Xi.
• Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s passage on Capitol Hill.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: An extended US government shutdown, bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, a dovish Fed rate cut, a US-China trade deal, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC toward $125,000.
• Bearish Scenario: US government reopens, rising risks of US stagflation, legislative roadblocks, stalled US-China trade talks, a hawkish Fed rate cut, or ETF outflows. These factors could push BTC toward $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs indicate a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term bias.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the 50-day EMA would bring $115,000 into play. A sustained move through $115,000 could enable the bulls to target the $125,671 all-time high.
• On the downside, a break below the 200-day EMA could bring the October 17 low of $103,576 into play. If breached, $100,000 would be the next key support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum ETF Flows and Key Support and Resistance Levels

Turning to Ethereum, ETH trades below the 50-day EMA, while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs suggest a bearish near-term outlook but a bullish longer-term bias.

• Upside Target: A break above $4,000 could pave the way toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA could enable the bulls to target the $4,500 resistance level.
• On the downside, a drop below $3,750 may bring the 200-day EMA into play. If breached, the 200-day EMA and $3,563 would be the next key support levels.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.