Bitcoin (BTC) Slips on Profit Taking; Fed Cues and BlackRocks’s ETF Flows Could Steer Trend

Bitcoin Dips on Profit Taking as Investors Take Post-Crypto Week Breather

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 0.06% on Saturday, July 19, following Friday’s 1.03% loss, closing at $117,810. BTC continued its retreat from the July 14 record high of $122,055.

Despite strong ETF inflows, profit-taking and geopolitical risk weighed on BTC sentiment. US President Trump is reportedly pushing for a 15-20% tariff as part of a trade deal with the EU. A retaliatory response from the EU could jeopardize a trade agreement, reviving global trade war fears.

Crypto Week Drives US BTC-Spot ETF Demand

While trade headlines dampened BTC demand, US BTC-spot ETF inflows cushioned the downside. The signing of the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill boosted BTC-spot ETF inflows.

According to Farside Investors, total net inflows reached $2,386 million. Key flows for the week ending July 18 included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had weekly net inflows of $2,569 million, the largest since December 2024.
• Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $122.5 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net outflows of $119.6 million.

BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust continued to dominate, extending the US BTC-spot ETF market’s inflow streak to twelve sessions.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Trade headlines.
• Legislative updates: the CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act votes.
• The upcoming US private sector PMIs and Fed monetary policy guidance.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed cues, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, upbeat US Services PMI, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC back toward its record high.
• Bearish Scenario: Rising trade tensions, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative setbacks, rising US recession risks, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $110,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite pulling back from its record high, BTC remains above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish signals.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the July 18 record high of $122,055 could enable the bulls to target $125,000. A sustained move through $125,000 may signal a move toward $130,000.
• On the downside, a drop below $115,000 could bring the 50-day EMA into play. Sustained selling pressure may expose the crucial $100,000 support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.60 suggests BTC may climb to $122,055 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Soars as ETH-Spot ETF Inflows Surge

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), ETH continues to trade above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish momentum.

The US ETH-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $2,182.4 million in the week ending July 18, up from inflows of $908.1 million the previous week.

Market intelligence platform remarked on ETH demand, stating:

“Ethereum’s market value has now grown by +50% since June 22nd, hitting its highest price levels since late January. The network has over 152.03M non-empty ETH wallets, more than any other coin in cryptocurrency. Additionally, the crowd has taken note of the major price rebound, pouring in the highest level of discussions since a similar price rise back in May 2024.”

• Upside target: A breakout above the July 20 high of $3,694 could pave the way toward $3,750. A sustained move through $3,750 may enable the bulls to target the $4,085 resistance level.
• On the downside, a break below the $3,563 support level could expose the 3,287 support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 86.29 shows ETH sitting in overbought territory (RSI > 70). Selling pressure could intensify at the July 20 high of $3,694.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.