Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Analysis: Crypto Market Rallies as US, China Slash Tariffs

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and the broader crypto market rallied on May 12, after the US and China agreed to de-escalate the trade war that has rattled global markets in recent months.

BTC’s price jumped 1.50% to reach over $105,700, while ETH and XRP rose 4.38% and 3.72% to hit $2,625 and $2.45, respectively. The total crypto market capitalization climbed 2.50% in the same period, touching the $3.28 trillion mark for the first time since February 2025.

Wall Street’s risk appetite surged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the US-China trade talks “very robust and productive.”

Tech stocks, which had struggled for much of the year, led the rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures jumping 3.8%. Meanwhile, the US dollar climbed to a one-month high, gold dropped over 3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43%.

The breakthrough in negotiations provided much-needed relief for investors who had feared that escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies could trigger a global recession.

As part of the deal, the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for a 90-day period, according to a joint statement from Geneva.

Bitcoin Whales Are Showing Confidence in US-China Trade Deal

Whale wallets are showing renewed confidence in Bitcoin, signaling a potential breakout as retail traders exit the market.

According to fresh data from Material Indicators, large entities—those placing orders between $100,000 and $10 million—have sharply increased their buying activity over the past 48 hours.

The cumulative volume delta (CVD) lines for these whale classes have climbed significantly since May 10, underscoring strong accumulation at current price levels.

This surge in whale demand contrasts with a notable decline in smaller order flows. Retail traders, particularly those placing orders under $10,000, appear to be taking profits or exiting positions, a dynamic often seen ahead of larger institutional moves.

Further reinforcing the bullish setup is the near-complete removal of the sell wall at $106,000, as shown in the heatmap. This once-formidable resistance level has thinned considerably, paving the way for a potential breakout to new highs.

Bitcoin Rising Wedge Indicates Decline Toward $91,000

Bitcoin is flashing potential warning signs as it trades near $104,500, with technical charts revealing a rising wedge pattern, typically viewed as a bearish reversal signal.

The pattern has formed during BTC’s climb from April lows, placing the current uptrend under scrutiny as it approaches a strong resistance zone near $106,000.

A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline could trigger a sharp correction, potentially targeting the $91,000 level, aligned with key moving averages and previous support.

Adding to the caution, the daily RSI has entered overbought territory above 74, suggesting momentum may be overextended. While strong buying from whale wallets remains a bullish tailwind, traders are advised to monitor for signs of exhaustion or a reversal in trend.

Bitcoin must decisively break above the $106,000 resistance to invalidate the bearish setup.

Ethereum Mega-Whales Are Buying the Rally

Ethereum’s onchain data reveals a major shift in sentiment among mega-whales—entities holding over 10,000 ETH, according to Glassnode data.

Since late April 2025, the net position change (green bars) has trended strongly positive, indicating sustained accumulation. Correspondingly, the total ETH supply held by these wallets (purple line) has risen to a new local high of over 40.75 million ETH.

This aggressive buying comes after months of outflows between October 2024 and March 2025.

Notably, Ethereum’s price (black line) has begun to rebound from sub-$2,500 levels, suggesting that mega-whale accumulation could be a bullish signal for ETH’s medium-term market trajectory.

Ethereum’s Falling Wedge Indicates $3,500 Next

Ethereum has broken out of a long-standing falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup, signaling the potential for a sustained upside move.

The breakout, confirmed with a strong daily close above resistance, has propelled ETH above $2,500 with an 8.8% gain. This rally follows a rebound from the wedge’s lower boundary near $1,650 and now targets key Fibonacci retracement levels, with immediate resistance at $3,050 (0.618 Fib).

RSI has surged into bullish territory above 65, reflecting renewed momentum. If sustained, the breakout could open the door for a move toward $3,515 or even $4,095 in the coming weeks.

XRP Whale Wallets Signal Long-Term Accumulation

Onchain data from Glassnode shows the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 tokens has steadily risen to nearly 300,000 — an all-time high. This trend highlights ongoing accumulation among larger holders, despite the recent price surge from under $0.70 to over $2.

The consistent growth in high-balance wallets suggests long-term confidence in XRP’s fundamentals and price trajectory, supporting the bullish breakout from a broader macro perspective.

XRP Falling Wedge Breakout Underway

XRP has confirmed a breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.

The move comes after months of consolidation, with price now holding above the wedge’s upper trendline near $2.40. The breakout is accompanied by strong volume and a rising RSI, indicating renewed bullish momentum.

If the pattern plays out fully, XRP could target the $3.48 resistance level — a key horizontal level from earlier this year. A sustained move above this could open the door for a retest of XRP’s multi-year highs.