Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Remains Range-bound, a Bearish Signal

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Sunday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising by 0.35% to end a seven-day losing streak.
• The upside came despite a fall in the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which remained deep within the “Extreme Fear” zone.
• Technical indicators also remained bearish, with bitcoin below the 50-day EMA.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.35%. Reversing a 0.12% decline from Saturday, bitcoin ended the week down by 8.26% to $19,294. While a seven-day losing streak ended, bitcoin resumed its run of weekly losses, falling for the twelfth week in 14 weeks.

In a choppy start to the day, bitcoin fell through the First Major Support Level at $18,989 to a low of $18,768.

Coming within range of the Second Major Support Level at $18,750, bitcoin rallied to a high of $19,617.

Bitcoin briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $19,440 before easing back.

While bringing the seven-day losing streak to an end, bitcoin fell to sub-$19,000 for a fourth consecutive session.

There were no crypto news events to shift investor sentiment, with bitcoin benefitting from the lack of external market forces, including the NASDAQ 100.

With investors jittery over the economic outlook and Fed monetary policy, it could be another choppy week ahead.

While the US markets are closed on Monday, US economic indicators and central back chatter will influence this week.

The key stats include ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers (Wed) and the all-important nonfarm payrolls (Fri). To add to the market tension will be the FOMC meeting minutes due out on Wednesday.

On the crypto regulatory side, the market will also need to track any news updates from the SEC v Ripple case. Investors await a court ruling on an SEC motion to shield William Hinman’s 2018 speech-related documents under attorney-client privilege.

In 2018, the former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. A ruling in favor of Ripple would be a positive for the crypto market.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Continues to Send Bearish Signals

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index reversed Sunday’s decline, rising from 11/100 to 14/100. The move to 14/100 left the Index within its current range that has extended since June 8, which was the last time the Index stood above 14/100.

An Index move above the 14/100 level could fuel a bitcoin breakout from its current ranges. On June 8, the Index stood at 17/100, with bitcoin at $30,229.

For the bitcoin bulls, the Index remains deep within the “Extreme Fear” zone. A move through to 17/100 would support a return to the “Fear” zone, last visited on May 5, when bitcoin stood at $36,630.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.09% to $19,277.

Technical Indicators

BTC will need to avoid the $19,226 pivot to test resistance at the Sunday high of $19,617 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,685.

BTC would need NASDAQ 100 Mini support to breakout from $19,500.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,074, and resistance at $20,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,924.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,837 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,377 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,528.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,884.

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, bitcoin price negative.

A breakout from R1 would bring the 50-day EMA and resistance at $20,500 into play.

However, following the Friday fall through the 50-day EMA, failure to return to $20,000 would leave sub-$19,000 support levels in play.