Bitcoin Is Repeating Macro Setup That Last Preceded 120% Explosion

Bitcoin (BTC) may be setting up for a major move higher, and the clues are coming from US economic data that most crypto traders typically overlook.

US Manufacturing Data Set To Spook Bitcoin Bears

On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, one of the first big reports, came in much stronger than expected. It jumped to 18.7 in October, while economists had expected it to be only 5.8.

The survey is often an early signal of where the broader US economy is heading.

For months, parts of these surveys that look ahead—not backward—have been improving quietly. Monday’s report is the first clear indication that the improving trend is now evident in the main numbers.

So why does this matter for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin Rallied 120% Last Time It Deviated From US Economy Boom

Bitcoin often surges when manufacturing data (such as PMIs) turns higher, as rising PMIs signal improving growth, easier liquidity, and a shift from “fear mode” to “risk-on.”

When BTC is priced for economic weakness but the data strengthens, markets realize it’s undervalued, triggering fast upside repricing.

At around $91,000, Bitcoin is currently priced as if the US economy is weakening. Specifically, Bitcoin’s price suggests the main national manufacturing index (called ISM) should be around 46, which normally signals economic trouble.

However, if these new surveys continue to rise, Bitcoin may suddenly appear too cheap in comparison to the improving economic outlook. Whenever this has happened in the past, Bitcoin usually reprices upward quickly.

The same setup has happened before.

In late 2015, US manufacturing data hit a low point and then started to turn higher. Bitcoin was still priced for bad news at the time. When the data improved, BTC rallied 120% in the following months.

The same pattern showed up in 2020 and late 2023:

• Bitcoin priced for economic weakness
• Manufacturing data began improving
• BTC shot sharply higher when the market realized it was wrong

Now, the market is seeing the early signs of that pattern all over again.

Bitcoin Will Likely Reclaim $100,000 in November

Bitcoin is repeating the same bullish reversal pattern seen in Q1 2025, according to analyst Cas Abbé.

Back then, BTC hit a new all-time high, broke below key support, and briefly decoupled from the rising stock market before forming a multi-week accumulation range.

Abbé notes that the recent pullback mirrors that structure almost exactly, with BTC now expected to consolidate between $85,000 and $100,000 for 3–4 weeks.

Both corrections were triggered by macroeconomic fears—tariffs in early 2025 and AI bubble panic today. With Nvidia’s strong earnings restoring confidence, the fractal raises the probability of Bitcoin retesting $100,000 by year-end.