Bitcoin Price Analysis: 5 BTC Charts to Not Miss This May

Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to finish April in the green, having risen by circa 13% month-to-date as traders assess a flurry of uplifting fundamentals, including the US–Iran ceasefire and Strategy’s BTC buying spree.

Still, the cryptocurrency is down by roughly 40% from its record high of around $126,200, established in October 2025.

Multiple analyses indicate that BTC’s ongoing recovery appears to be a bear-market rebound, i.e., the price may decline further in 2026, including in May. Here are five key BTC charts to watch amid these downside sentiments.

Fed Decision May Pressure Bitcoin Toward $70K in May

Bitcoin could face renewed downside pressure in May as historical post-FOMC trends point to short-term weakness.

Data compiled by analyst Ardi shows BTC declined in 8 of the last 9 FOMC weeks, with an average drop of around 11% within seven days of the decision. Applying that average to Bitcoin’s current ~$77,000 level projects a move toward the $68,000–$70,000 range.

The pattern suggests that even in bullish conditions, FOMC events tend to trigger profit-taking and unwind leveraged positioning.

Bitcoin’s May Returns In US Midterm Years Average -15%

Bitcoin has consistently posted negative returns in May during recent US midterm election cycles, reinforcing the seasonal “sell in May” narrative.

In 2018, Bitcoin fell about 18% in May amid a broader downtrend following a failed Q1 recovery rally.

In 2022, the cryptocurrency dropped another 15%–16% during May, pressured by aggressive monetary tightening and the collapse of major crypto entities, which drove prices toward the $26,000 zone.

Across these two cycles, Bitcoin has averaged approximately 15% decline in May during midterm years. If the pattern repeats, BTC may drop toward $65,500 in the month.

The monthly drop has typically marked only the early or middle phase of a larger downturn, with full-cycle drawdowns historically extending beyond 60% from peak levels.

Bitcoin Channel Hints At Price Falling Under $69,000 in May

Bitcoin trades within a rising channel after rebounding from February lows, but momentum is fading near resistance.

A breakdown below the lower trendline, aligned with 0.618 Fibonacci support, could trigger a decline toward the $69,000 region by early May, extending the corrective structure within a broader post-peak downtrend.

A rebound from the $69,000 support raises the odds that the BTC price will eye the channel’s upper trendline as the primary upside target. Conversely, a close below the lower trendline may trigger a bear flag setup.

Bear flags form when the price consolidates higher inside a parallel channel after undergoing a downtrend. It resolves when the price breaks below the lower trendline and drops by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.

Applying this technical rule on the BTC/USD daily chart brings its flag target to under $56,000. The pair may reach this level by the end of May or early June.

Bitcoin Shark Accumulation Rises Despite Cautious Derivatives Data

Bitcoin’s mid-sized holders, “sharks” with 100–1,000 BTC, are increasing their exposure, with their aggregate holdings climbing toward ~3.5 million BTC, near multi-month highs, according to Glassnode.

At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates have hovered around neutral to slightly negative, reflecting cautious sentiment among leveraged traders.

The divergence suggests that while spot demand is strengthening, the derivatives market is not positioned for aggressive upside.

For May, rising shark accumulation with flat-to-negative funding suggests Bitcoin may see a controlled pullback or sideways grind, not a clean bullish breakout.

Larger holders are buying spot, but hedging through futures shows they remain cautious about near-term downside. That means dips may attract buyers, but rallies could stay capped unless funding improves, keeping the $63,000–$69,000 area in focus.

USDT Liquidity Strengthens Bitcoin’s May Upside Case

Bitcoin’s liquidity backdrop has turned decisively bullish as Tether’s stablecoin USDT‘s market cap growth flips from contraction to expansion.

CryptoQuant data shows Tether’s 60-day market cap change staging a sharp V-shaped rebound after falling below zero in early 2026, signaling fresh capital returning to the market.

Historically, rising USDT supply has acted as fuel for Bitcoin rallies, as stablecoin liquidity often becomes “dry powder” for spot buying. The latest rebound suggests the late-2025 liquidity drain has ended, giving BTC stronger support near the $77,000–$78,000 range.

If this newly minted USDT converts into spot demand, Bitcoin could challenge overhead resistance in May, making the liquidity pivot one of the clearest bullish signals currently supporting BTC.