XRP Price Prediction: Cycle Bottom at $1.30 Could Result in Big Gains

XRP (XRP) has been consolidating for weeks now, but has managed to stay above a key support at $1.30 as market sentiment seems to be shifting.

The markets seem to be calmer than they were a couple of weeks ago as the U.S. war with Iran could soon come to an end.

Iran reportedly proposed a new peace deal, meaning that negotiations continue to make progress to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and normalize the oil market.

The price of oil sits at $95, down 19% from its recent peak. This may have eased investors’ concerns about higher inflation via increased energy costs.

Kevin Warsh Could Soon Take The Reins of the Federal Reserve

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will make its decision on interest rates. The market expects zero changes to the federal funds rate for the time being. In fact, analysts no longer expect a rate cut this year.

This will be the last time that Chairman Jerome Powell will preside over the FOMC meeting, as Kevin Warsh is expected to replace the long-tenured head of the Fed next month. Warsh’s Senate hearings have apparently satisfied lawmakers, and everything seems to be in place for his confirmation.

Warsh’s policy decisions this year will have a huge impact on the performance of risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Under Powell, the central bank was significantly cautious about cutting rates and was heavily criticized by President Donald Trump for its inaction.

“The key question going in was whether he would preserve the Federal Reserve’s independence from presidential influence,” commented James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, regarding Warsh’s last week’s Senate hearings.

“Markets appeared satisfied by his answers. Futures barely moved, and Bitcoin showed no meaningful reaction. This removes one obvious near-term source of concern around policy credibility,” he further emphasized.

If Warsh adopts a dovish stance since the beginning of his tenure, that could favor a bullish outlook for exotic assets like XRP.

XRP Lags Ethereum and Bitcoin as Investors Remain Cautious

Despite seemingly better market conditions, XRP has lagged behind Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in terms of performance as capital continues to be poured into high-quality assets. This reflects that risk appetite is still limited.

In the past 30 days, BTC and ETH have yielded 17% and 16% gains, respectively, while other top-tier altcoins like XRP, BNB, and SOL have delivered lower returns of 5%, 3%, and 2%, respectively.

Nonetheless, if the market continues to recover and sentiment improves, it is only a matter of time for investors to start relaxing their grip, which could result in higher gains down the road for XRP.

Net Inflows to ETFs Close in Positive Territory for a Fourth Week

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended their fourth consecutive week in positive territory, as market sentiment continues to improve.

CoinShares said that $1.2 billion flowed to exchange-traded products (ETPs) last week. The report highlights that this “likely reflects improving institutional demand against a backdrop of Bitcoin trading at its highest levels since early February.”

XRP ETFs brought in a total of $25 million during this period. This results in accumulated year-to-date positive inflows of $148 million.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 44 at the time of writing, meaning a strong retreat from a recent high of 62.

This was the first time that this sentiment gauge entered “Greed” territory since October 2025, making this a significant milestone and, potentially, an early indication of an ongoing shift in investors’ risk appetite.

One Historical Pattern Favors Upcoming Rally to $5

Heading to the weekly chart, we are seeing a similar trend in XRP in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to what we have reported in our latest Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions.

This momentum oscillator has been a great tool to time the end of bear markets for XRP as well. The last three times that the indicator has dipped below 33, it has been a great time to buy XRP.

We have seen volatile, yet strongly positive returns ranging from 226% to 1,460% during three periods: 2020 (pandemic crash), 2022 (higher rates, FTX’s collapse), and 2024.

The RSI recently dropped to 30 in early March, marking the fourth time that the oscillator has hit these lows. If historical patterns repeat, we should see a strong recovery over the next few months, meaning that XRP likely hit a cycle bottom at $1.30.

How high could this altcoin go if a new bullish cycle starts? We expect strong returns ranging from 200% to 400% over a span of around 12 to 16 months, in line with these previous historical patterns.

A descending price channel has formed in this weekly time frame as a result of XRP’s latest bear market. The most relevant area of resistance to watch for the time being would be the $1.60 area, followed by $1.80.

If the price spikes to $2, the token will probably start moving fast, possibly aided by a strong short squeeze. If this prediction’s full upside potential turns out to be right, we could see XRP trading at around $5 a year from now.

Attractive Trading Opportunity Spotted in the Daily Chart

Moving down to the daily chart, a trend line support has emerged after XRP’s climb from $1.30 to $1.50 in the past few weeks.

The key area of demand to watch sits at $1.40. Coinciding with the token’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Now that the price is trading above this line, we could expect a retest from above to raise the necessary liquidity for a move higher.

The next target should be $1.50, followed by a stronger rally toward $1.65. This translates into an 18% upside potential and a potentially attractive opportunity for swing traders.

We see a 4.5x risk-reward ratio for a trade if the entry price is set at $1.40 and the stop price is defined at $1.35. Meanwhile, the first take-profit target for this trade would sit at $1.49 for a 1.65x return, followed by a second target of $1.65.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 40. We need a strong bounce off $1.40 to get things moving, and a jump above 60 in this momentum oscillator that confirms a shift in sentiment.

In contrast, if we get a bearish breakout below this trend line support, we will likely get a retest of the $1.30 area. That should be the last line of defense for bulls to prevent a 14% drop.