Bitcoin Price Forecast: Another 50% Crash Likely Despite Jane Street Chatter

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls face renewed downside risk after BTC’s $70,000 bounce fades, with Nvidia-driven risk-on and “Jane Street” chatter masking a fresh death-cross warning.

Returning Death Cross Makes Case For 50% BTC Price Decline

BTC’s three-day chart looks poised to print a “death cross” for the first time since 2022.

A death cross forms when the asset’s 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA. Traditional traders treat this signal as a bearish signal. In 2022, the signal preceded a roughly 50% decline in BTC prices.

That increases the odds of Bitcoin’s extended selloff in 2026 if it paints the death cross signal. Adding to the risk is the formation of a bear pennant, a classic bearish continuation structure, akin to how the 2022 bear trend continued after painting a bear flag.

The combination of these bearish signals may lead to the repeat of the 2022 bear market. BTC could drop by another 50% from its current levels, hitting the $30,000–$35,000 range by 2026’s end if the fractal repeats.

Jane Street Chatter May Not Help BTC Rally Sustain

In my view, the broader market treated Nvidia’s earnings as good, not great. As a result, US futures turned lower the next morning.

Bitcoin showed the same hesitation. It hit $70,000 and then slipped back, which often happens in a bear trap. A headline forces short sellers to cover, price jumps to a high level, and traders mistake that move for a real trend change.

Some bulls also blamed BTC’s 50%-plus crash in recent months on Jane Street, a quant investment firms, arguing that this pressure eased, which may allow Bitcoin to rise. But that idea is not proven.

Everyone is asking: “Is Jane Street why Bitcoin isn’t at $150k?”

As expected, the answer is trickier than the question. But it’s also more structurally unsettling than the conspiracy theory itself—and once you understand the actual mechanics, you won’t be able to unsee them👇 pic.twitter.com/iLEeJpDeo4

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 25, 2026

Short-term holder data adds another reason to stay cautious.

CryptoQuant’s Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss to Exchanges has stayed net negative since Jan. 26, which means many recent buyers have been sending coins to exchanges at a loss.

The chart also shows two sharp downside jolts—around Feb. 5 and Feb. 21—that were “absorbed” after roughly $8K drops, but the indicator never flipped back to green afterward.

In plain terms, the bounce risk remains that each pump becomes a chance for stressed holders to exit, not the start of a clean reversal.

Bulls would want this metric to turn positive and stay there to argue the market has moved from panic selling to real demand.