Bitcoin Price Forecast: Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Spark Another 200% Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) has stumbled in the days leading up to the Jackson Hole symposium, slipping more than 10% from its recent highs as traders brace for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s annual policy speech.

A Familiar Bitcoin Pattern Around Powell’s Speeches

Jackson Hole has become a recurring pivot point for Bitcoin. After Powell’s 2023 speech, BTC initially dipped before embarking on a nearly 200% rally into the following months.

In 2024, his dovish tilt—signaling possible rate cuts—again unleashed a sharp upswing, this time lifting Bitcoin by more than 100%. Both instances followed a similar pattern: September volatility, then a surge into year-end.

These reactions highlight how sensitive Bitcoin has become to US monetary policy. Traders treat Powell’s words as a roadmap for liquidity, and Bitcoin’s performance has mirrored shifts in Fed tone almost reflexively.

What Powell Said in the Past, And Why 2025 Matters

In 2020, Powell used Jackson Hole to unveil a framework tolerating inflation above 2%, fueling Bitcoin’s 2020–21 bull run. By 2024, he pivoted toward easing as inflation cooled, sparking another rally in risk assets.

This year, conditions are more complicated. Inflation is sticky due to tariffs, while jobs data show signs of cooling.

Fed officials are divided: Cleveland’s Beth Hammack warns against cutting too soon, Boston’s Susan Collins supports a cut to avoid falling behind, and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari has floated two cuts by year-end.

Powell, meanwhile, has stuck to a “wait-and-see” stance in his recent post-FOMC press conferences, stressing data dependency as he balances dovish pressure from US President Donald Trump and mixed economic signals.

This cautious posture has contributed to Bitcoin’s pre-speech pullback. ETF outflows, bearish option positioning, and fragility in technicals reflect investor anxiety.

Still, analysts maintain the broader bull trend is intact. Studies, like those from Ned Davis Research, note the absence of a parabolic top in BTC, suggesting substantial upside remains locked under the surface.

Bitcoin Price Forecast After Jackson Hole: Technicals Favor Short-Term Downtrend

The Bitcoin daily chart shows a clear breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, a structure typically viewed as bearish.

After failing to hold above the wedge’s upper boundary near $124,000, BTC has slipped below the wedge’s support line and the 50-day EMA ($114,803).

This loss of trendline and moving average support suggests sellers have regained control, with momentum indicators like the RSI still leaning bearish around the mid-40s.

The measured move target of the wedge points to deeper downside, with the first key support sitting near the 200-day EMA ($103,374) and the next major level at $87,600.

On weekly timeframes, however, Bitcoin’s primary downside target appears to be around its 50-period EMA near $95,000. A decisive close below this level may push the price toward the rising wedge’s downside target.

What Could Change This View?

Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilizing above its resistance-turned-support level at around $113,000. A bounce from this floor, followed by a decisive close above the 50-day EMA at around $114,800, will push the price back inside the rising wedge area.

Such a move will likely reduce the BTC breakdown odds, instead pushing the price toward the wedge’s lower boundary as resistance; it is around $120,000.

Reclaiming the lower boundary as support may delay the breakdown altogether, with the BTC price eyeing the retest of the wedge’s upper boundary inside the $125,000-130,000 area—a new record high.