Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Support Holds – BTC to $160K?

Bitcoin (BTC) has barely reacted to news that the U.S. government shutdown has come to an end, booking a 1.9% loss in the past 24 hours as it drops near $103,000.

In the past 30 days, the token has shed 7% of its value. However, since the last time it hit an all-time high, it has retreated by more than 18% as market sentiment has soured.

The market is waiting for tomorrow’s inflation numbers for October to see how prices continue to react to President Donald Trump’s latest 100% tariff increase on Chinese imported goods.

If inflation accelerates, that would raise the odds of a postponed rate cut in December, contrary to what the market expected.

Traders’ Interest Wanes As Downtrend Persists

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) started the week on a positive note, as they brought in $524 million on Monday, according to data from Farside Investors.

Fear and Greed Index – Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index remains heavily depressed despite the latest news, standing at 25, down from a 30-day peak of 42. These low readings tend to be contrarian signals, as rallies tend to start when sentiment is as pessimistic as it gets.

Traders’ participation in the market remains weak as well, as open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures have dropped by 14% compared to where they were when BTC reached a new record.

Between January and March, back when OI levels were at this same range, the price of BTC progressively declined from around $100,000 to $86,000. Hence, unless traders’ interest recovers, we could expect a sustained decline in the price of the top crypto.

BTC Could Rise to $160K After This Buy Signal

We have been tracking Bitcoin’s behavior on the weekly chart in our latest BTC price predictions around the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).

BTC/USD Weekly Chart – Source: TradingView

The last three times that BTC hit this line, it went on to surge by as much as 170% at some point. Right now, we have touched that mark, and the price has managed to stay above it.

That said, the price action has not yet confirmed a bullish outlook. In fact, we still have a Relative Strength Index (RSI) that is heading lower and has already moved below the signal line.

In order to confirm this support level, the RSI would have to rise above its 14-week moving average, as this would mean that positive momentum is gaining traction.

The last time the price bounced off this level, BTC rose by 60%. It has been the lowest move in terms of magnitude compared to the previous two. If we get a similar performance in this case, Bitcoin could rise to at least $160,000 in the next few weeks.

The first time it took 23 weeks for BTC to reach its peak, while the two times after it hit a new record in 3 months or so.

A positive catalyst like the end of the U.S. government shutdown could be enough to keep BTC afloat. The Fear and Greed Index is where you want it to be (heavily depressed), traders’ participation indicates bearish sentiment as well, but Bitcoin ETFs have not experienced any dramatic outlays just yet.

Hence, long-term investors appear to be expecting a comeback, while this historical pattern supports that BTC could resume its upward trajectory soon.