Bitcoin Price Prediction: Weekly RSI Confirms Massive Buy Signal for BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by 9% in the past 30 days as market sentiment continues to recover and could still deliver a 10% gain if the market aims for a retest of a key technical level.

Geopolitical tensions have eased lately, and the market seems to be expecting that the war in Iran will soon be over.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still volatile and tense, but a drop in the price of oil from its local peak of $117 to $94 at the time of writing indicates that investors’ attitude has shifted.

Sentiment Has Changed and Bitcoin’s ETF Inflows Confirm It

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index also reflects this change, as this sentiment gauge recently hit “Greed” levels for the first time since October. This happened around two and a half months after the index dropped to a record low of 5.

We have seen how previous recoveries like these, following pronounced downturns, tend to signal the beginning of a cycle change. In Bitcoin’s case, it appears that the $64,000 level could have been this cycle’s bottom.

That said, we still need to see a move above key technical levels like the $85,000 threshold to confirm this.

Investors have also been pouring millions of dollars into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to cryptocurrencies. Data from Farside Investors shows that these vehicles have brought in positive inflows in the past 6 days in a row.

In total, over $1.5 billion has been deposited into these funds, reflecting a growing appetite for cryptos and risk.

CoinShares emphasized in its latest market update that “liquidity between current levels and US$80,000 remains remarkably thin, which means that if momentum continues, the move higher could be fast.”

Short Liquidations Rise and Bears Get Squeezed

We agree with this view, as we are seeing a strong spike in short liquidations recently. Thin liquidity and a significant concentration of stop orders above the $78,000 level could be the gasoline that pushes BTC back to its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,000.

More than $1.5 billion worth of short positions in the futures market were blown up in the past week, confirming an ongoing short squeeze.

Considering that BTC’s latest rally has not yet crossed relevant technical thresholds, the situation could get worse for bears if this uptrend breaks past that $78K ceiling.

Whale Accumulation Signals Opportunistic Buying for Bitcoin (BTC)

Whale activity also favors a bullish outlook, as addresses with balances between 1 and 10,000 BTC are in clear accumulation mode.

According to on-chain data from Santiment, these wallets have bought 70,000 BTC tokens since the month started, meaning an investment of approximately $5 billion.

Notably, wallets with holdings between 100 and 1,000 BTC have done most of the buying, adding 50,000 BTC tokens, followed by even bigger whales, those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 tokens, who bought the rest.

The other two magnitudes have maintained their current holdings, which is a positive sign that indicates commitment and positive expectations about the future.

Historical Returns Have Been Huge When This Weekly RSI Buy Signal Pops Up

Heading to the weekly charts, we have been tracking an interesting historical pattern that has provided clear and profitable buy signals three times in the past.

Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit 30 for the first time since June 2022. Back then, macroeconomic conditions were harsh. Interest rates had been climbing for months, as part of an effort from the Federal Reserve to contain rampant inflation in the United States.

In addition, FTX collapsed and shook the market. These negative catalysts plunged BTC from a cycle top of $69,000 to $16,000 in just 12 months.

This dramatic 75% loss proved to be an attractive buying opportunity, as the top crypto climbed back to its previous all-time highs just 14 months later and delivered a 564% after 32 months.

The RSI provided the buy signal back then, same as it did during the 2013 – 2015 and 2017 – 2018 bear markets. This momentum oscillator has been a profitable “canary in the coal mine” for BTC three times already, delivering gains of 9,780%, 2,089%, and 564%, respectively.

What we see as the most encouraging factor right now is that the RSI just crossed above the 14-week moving average – quite decisively.

This has been the ultimate buy signal in the past, and even though the price has often retested previous cycle lows weeks or months later, the long-term results of this strategy speak for themselves.

BTC Could Rise Near $200,000 in 2026, and Top Banks Agree

How high could BTC go this time? Hard to say. History shows that gains have been progressively shrinking, as BTC has become more valuable, heavily adopted, and widely known.

We might expect gains of 200% to 300% this time, which means that BTC could rise to $260,000 over the next two to three years. This forecast is in line with what analysts from top banks and institutions seem to be expecting.

For example, analysts from Citi recently outlined a base case of $143,000 for BTC and a bullish scenario of $189,000 for the top crypto. Meanwhile, JP Morgan said that they expect BTC to finish the year at around $170,000.

Moreover, long-term predictions are even more optimistic, as Standard Chartered recently said that BTC should hit $500,000 by 2030.

All of these analysts cite increased interest from Wall Street’s top banks in both Bitcoin and blockchain technology as a whole as the primary catalyst for this uptick.

Technical indicators seem to be favoring that bullish view, and a heavily depressed weekly RSI could confirm that it is still early to get in.

BTC Could Explode If It Breaks This Key Resistance

Heading to the daily chart, we have been keeping track of the price action and its behavior once it hits the $78,000 resistance, as this has been Bitcoin’s strongest sell wall for months.

BTC remains in consolidation until otherwise proven. However, yesterday’s spike near $80,000 was encouraging and could be an early indication that the market is ready to break through this wall.

A significant volume of stop orders for short positions should be sitting on top of that level. Hence, we could be about to witness a massive short squeeze if bulls manage to push BTC above $80,000.

We expect a move to $85,000 in the near term if that happens, as part of a normal reversion to the mean move. Unless BTC breaks the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), this could still qualify as a bear market rally.

However, when considering this massive buy signal in the weekly chart, higher time frames favor a strong recovery toward $100,000 at least, and, possibly, the beginning of a cycle change.