Bitcoin Price Will Hit $185,000: Top Analyst Explains Why

Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to $185,000 in the current market cycle, according to popular crypto analyst Quinten Francois, who cites onchain and logarithmic models to support his bullish thesis.

Francois shared a chart dubbed the Bitcoin On-Chain Value Map, which breaks down BTC’s historical price behavior into valuation bands—ranging from “heavy undervalued” to “heavy overvalued”—based on key onchain metrics.

As of late July 2025, Bitcoin is nearing the “overvalued” zone around $102,000, with the top “heavy overvalued” band extending to $185,000. That price level, Francois suggests, may mark the peak of this market cycle.

September May Mark the Top, On-Chain Data Suggests

Backing Francois’ call is the 365-day moving average (365DMA) of Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio—a historically reliable indicator of market cycle tops.

In 2021, this metric formed a “camel double-top,” with the second peak arriving six months after the first, just before the bear market. The 2025 cycle appears to be mirroring that structure, pointing to a potential top around Sept. 10.

This timing aligns with bullish macro factors like a potential Fed rate cut, suggesting Bitcoin has enough momentum to hit $185,000 within the next two months.

Power-Law Trend Adds Long-Term Validation

Francois’ target aligns with the long-term Bitcoin Power-Law model, recently updated by analyst Crypto Rand.

This model plots Bitcoin’s historical price on a logarithmic scale and fits it within a power-law growth corridor—designed to reflect Bitcoin’s compounding growth and diminishing volatility over time.

According to the chart, Bitcoin has reliably oscillated within a ±2σ band, capturing 95% of price action since 2013. The model forecasts a median BTC price of $258,000 by the next halving in March 2028, implying that the current cycle still has significant room to expand.

The convergence of these two independent models—one onchain and one logarithmic—adds credibility to the $185,000 projection. It reflects growing institutional inflows, tight supply, and supportive macro tailwinds that could power Bitcoin’s next breakout.