S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Steady as Traders Brace for Big Earnings Week

Stocks Tick Higher as U.S.-EU Trade Deal Ignites Energy and Defense Rally

U.S. stock futures edged up Monday, kickstarting a pivotal week for markets following news of a trade deal between the United States and European Union. The agreement, which slashes tariffs to 15%, gave futures a mild boost, though gains were tempered as traders looked ahead to critical economic data and earnings reports.

Dow futures gained 46 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Despite the upbeat news on trade, market enthusiasm remained subdued. Analysts pointed to elevated valuations and a packed calendar that includes earnings from major tech names, a Federal Reserve decision, and key inflation and labor data.

How Are Energy and Defense Stocks Reacting to the U.S.-EU Deal?

The trade agreement spurred premarket rallies in energy and defense shares. European commitments to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy drove gains across the sector.

Venture Global jumped 6%, New Fortress Energy rose 5%, while Cheniere Energy and NextDecade added nearly 4%. Eaton and Constellation Energy each climbed 2%, with EQT advancing over 1%.

Defense stocks also gained after President Trump announced the EU would buy “hundreds of billions of dollars” in U.S. military equipment. Kratos Defense added 2.3%, Lockheed Martin and RTX rose about 1% each. However, not all sectors benefitted. Stellantis fell 3% as EU carmakers brace for the negative impact of the new 15% blanket tariff on auto products.

What’s Driving Tech and Semiconductor Momentum?

Tech was mixed heading into a heavy earnings week. Meta Platforms and Microsoft report Wednesday, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday.

Markets are focused on commentary around AI investments to gauge the sustainability of this year’s hyperscaler rally.

Semiconductor stocks showed early strength. ASML rose 3.7% and STMicroelectronics gained 1.4%, buoyed by reduced trade uncertainty. Texas Instruments climbed 1.3% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock, citing expectations of a cyclical recovery post-capex peak.

What Economic Data Will Shape Fed Expectations?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its policy meeting ending Wednesday. Still, traders will parse Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments for signals on a potential September cut.

The economic calendar is packed. Wednesday brings second-quarter GDP, with consensus estimating 2.3% annualized growth following a 0.5% Q1 decline.

Thursday’s PCE inflation print is forecast to show core inflation stable at 2.7% year-over-year, with headline inflation at 2.5%.

Jobs data will hit daily from Tuesday through Friday, culminating with the July payrolls report, expected to show 102,000 jobs added and a 4.2% unemployment rate.

Outlook: Will Economic Data or Earnings Move the Market First?

With limited upside reaction to the trade deal, traders appear focused on incoming data to determine near-term direction. The Fed’s messaging, inflation figures, and big tech earnings are likely to set the tone. A cooler inflation print or dovish Fed language could support further upside, while hawkish surprises or earnings disappointments may cap gains near record levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.