S&P 500 Hovers Near Highs as Traders Eye Fed and Tariff Clock
Stocks traded narrowly mixed into the Monday afternoon session as traders looked past a U.S.–EU trade deal and positioned for major catalysts later in the week.
The S&P 500 edged slightly higher, up 0.04% near 6,391 after hitting a fresh record earlier. The Nasdaq rose 0.24% while the Dow Jones hovered down 0.02%, held back by weakness in key blue-chip names.
Is the Market Bracing for a Fed Signal or Just Waiting on Jobs?
The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting, with no rate change expected on Wednesday. However, traders are parsing every detail for signs of a potential September rate cut.
Focus is also shifting toward Friday’s July jobs report, forecast to show 102,000 new jobs, down from June’s 147,000. These data points could heavily influence Fed guidance and short-term rate bets.
Which Sectors Are Driving Today’s Moves?
Energy stocks led gains following the EU’s $750 billion pledge to purchase U.S. energy.
LNG players Venture Global (+5.5%), Cheniere (+4%), and NextDecade (+4%) advanced strongly. Tech also contributed, boosted by Tesla (+4%) on news of a $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung.
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See all Dow Jones forecastsMeanwhile, defense names like Lockheed Martin (+1.3%) and Kratos (+2.7%) climbed on Trump’s deal including military purchases.
Why Is the Dow Lagging Behind the Broader Market?
The Dow’s underperformance is tied to losses in heavyweight components.
Travelers fell 2.5%, Verizon dropped 1.7%, and Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, and Cisco all declined over 1%. Cisco slipped on an Evercore downgrade citing limited upside.
Nike stood out, rising 4% after a JPMorgan upgrade to overweight, projecting a recovery in consumer demand.
What’s the Short-Term Outlook Into the Close?
Indexes remain pinned near highs but movement has tightened. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year at 4.41%, while the dollar is firming.
With Big Tech earnings and the Fed on deck, expect heavier trading volume into the close.
Traders may opt for hedges or reduced exposure, while staying long in energy and selective tech where news flow is favorable.
Watch for any last-hour remarks on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.